Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Maruti Q1 FY25

BPCL reported Q1 FY25 revenue of INR 128,103 crore and PAT of INR 3,015 crore, despite absorbing ~INR 2,300 crore in LPG under-recoveries. Normalized PAT (excluding LPG losses and inventory gains) was ~INR 4,600 crore. Refinery throughput hit 10.11 MMTPA (160% of nameplate) with GRM of $7.86/bbl, supported by 39% Russian crude processing. Marketing volumes grew 3.2% YoY, with aviation fuel up 15% and market share at 26.9% among PSUs. Management guided for FY25 capex of INR 16,400 crore, targeting 23,000 retail outlets and 300+ CNG stations. The Bina petrochemical project (INR 49,000 crore) is on track for FY28-29 commissioning. Risks include potential sustained LPG under-recoveries without government compensation and project cost escalation at Mozambique LNG.

Guidance read

FY25 Capex of INR 16,400 crore: Management guided for total capex of INR 16,400 crore in FY25, with INR 2,438 crore spent in Q1. Retail network to reach 23,000 outlets by year-end: BPCL plans to expand its retail outlet network to 23,000 by end of FY25, adding ~1,300 outlets during the year. Bina petrochemical project commissioning by FY28-29: The integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina (INR 49,000 crore) is targeted for commissioning in FY28-29. Ethanol blending target of 15% in current quarter: BPCL aims to achieve 15% ethanol blending in the current quarter, up from 14.13% in Q1.

Risk read

Key risks include LPG under-recovery without compensation — BPCL incurred ~INR 2,300 crore in LPG losses in Q1, with no government compensation mechanism announced. Monthly losses could be ~INR 600 crore at current Saudi CP prices.; Mozambique LNG project cost escalation — The Mozambique LNG project (force majeure) may see cost escalation from $15.5B to ~$19.5-20B, impacting IRR. Management confirmed the project remains commercially viable but with lower returns.; Market share pressure from private players — BPCL's overall marketing volume growth of 3.2% lagged industry growth of 5.5%, partly due to private players regaining share as pricing normalized. Diesel volumes saw degrowth.; Refinery turnaround impact on throughput — Planned turnarounds at Kochi (45 days) and Bina (15 days) in H2 FY25 could temporarily reduce throughput and GRM..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

Maruti Suzuki reported a strong Q1 FY25 with net sales of ₹33,875 crore (+9.8% YoY) and net profit of ₹3,650 crore (+46.9% YoY), driven by cost reduction, favorable commodity prices, and forex gains. Total volumes grew 4.8% YoY to 521,868 units, with exports up 11.6% to 70,560 units. CNG penetration reached a record 33% of domestic sales. Management noted muted domestic demand due to heat waves and elections but remains optimistic about festive season recovery. Capacity utilization is ~85%, and inventory stands at 37 days. Risks include potential commodity price increases and yen appreciation impacting margins. Guidance for export volumes of 300,000 units for FY25 remains intact.

Guidance read

Export volume target of 300,000 units for FY25: Management reiterated that 300,000 export units is achievable for the full year, with growth in Middle East and Latin America. CNG vehicle sales target of 600,000 units for FY25: Management guided for 600,000 CNG vehicle sales in FY25, with Q1 achieving slightly less than 150,000 units. Six EV models planned by 2031: Maruti plans to launch six electric vehicle models by 2031, with the first EV to be displayed at Auto Expo in January 2025. 28 models in portfolio by end of decade: The company aims to expand from 18 to 28 models by 2030-31, adding at least 10 new models.

Risk read

Key risks include Commodity price increases — CFO noted that commodity prices are dynamic and could reverse, impacting margins. Non-ferrous metals have already seen some increase.; Yen appreciation impacting forex tailwind — CFO acknowledged that yen has started appreciating, which could moderate the forex benefit seen in Q1.; Muted domestic demand and high discounts — Discounts rose 50% QoQ to ₹21,700 per vehicle due to heat wave and elections. Demand recovery depends on festive season.; CAFE-3 norms compliance uncertainty — Stringent CAFE-3 norms from April 2027 may require significant EV/ hybrid mix. Super credits and penalties are still under policy consideration..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.