Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Grasim Q1 FY25

BPCL reported Q1 FY25 revenue of INR 128,103 crore and PAT of INR 3,015 crore, despite absorbing ~INR 2,300 crore in LPG under-recoveries. Normalized PAT (excluding LPG losses and inventory gains) was ~INR 4,600 crore. Refinery throughput hit 10.11 MMTPA (160% of nameplate) with GRM of $7.86/bbl, supported by 39% Russian crude processing. Marketing volumes grew 3.2% YoY, with aviation fuel up 15% and market share at 26.9% among PSUs. Management guided for FY25 capex of INR 16,400 crore, targeting 23,000 retail outlets and 300+ CNG stations. The Bina petrochemical project (INR 49,000 crore) is on track for FY28-29 commissioning. Risks include potential sustained LPG under-recoveries without government compensation and project cost escalation at Mozambique LNG.

Guidance read

FY25 Capex of INR 16,400 crore: Management guided for total capex of INR 16,400 crore in FY25, with INR 2,438 crore spent in Q1. Retail network to reach 23,000 outlets by year-end: BPCL plans to expand its retail outlet network to 23,000 by end of FY25, adding ~1,300 outlets during the year. Bina petrochemical project commissioning by FY28-29: The integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina (INR 49,000 crore) is targeted for commissioning in FY28-29. Ethanol blending target of 15% in current quarter: BPCL aims to achieve 15% ethanol blending in the current quarter, up from 14.13% in Q1.

Risk read

Key risks include LPG under-recovery without compensation — BPCL incurred ~INR 2,300 crore in LPG losses in Q1, with no government compensation mechanism announced. Monthly losses could be ~INR 600 crore at current Saudi CP prices.; Mozambique LNG project cost escalation — The Mozambique LNG project (force majeure) may see cost escalation from $15.5B to ~$19.5-20B, impacting IRR. Management confirmed the project remains commercially viable but with lower returns.; Market share pressure from private players — BPCL's overall marketing volume growth of 3.2% lagged industry growth of 5.5%, partly due to private players regaining share as pricing normalized. Diesel volumes saw degrowth.; Refinery turnaround impact on throughput — Planned turnarounds at Kochi (45 days) and Bina (15 days) in H2 FY25 could temporarily reduce throughput and GRM..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

Grasim's Q1 FY25 consolidated revenue stood at INR 33,861 crore and EBITDA at INR 4,076 crore. The VSF business achieved record quarterly volumes of 212 KT, while chemicals saw improved ECU realizations of INR 32,529. The paints business (Birla Opus) commenced commercial production at three plants, with over 80% of planned products in distribution and 102 depots operational. The B2B e-commerce platform Birla Pivot reached a quarterly run rate of over INR 550 crore. Management maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook, with VSF demand supported by fiber substitution and chemicals benefiting from stable caustic prices. However, chlorine remains under pressure due to competitor capacity additions. Key risks include sustained losses from new businesses and potential demand slowdown in key markets.

Guidance read

Paints: High single-digit market share by FY25 end: Management reiterated target of achieving high single-digit market share by end of FY25. Paints: 50,000 active dealers by FY25 end: Target to have 50,000 active dealers by end of FY25, currently on track. Renewables: Double capacity to 2 GW by FY25 end: Renewable energy capacity to double from 1 GW to 2 GW by end of FY25. B2B e-commerce: $1 billion revenue in three years: Birla Pivot aims to reach $1 billion in revenue within three years.

Risk read

Key risks include Paints business losses may persist — Paints business is in investment mode with significant marketing spend; losses expected to continue for at least three years.; Chlorine oversupply from competitor capacity — Competitor added significant chlorine capacity in Gujarat, putting downward pressure on chlorine prices and ECU.; Paints revenue understated due to CWIP accounting — Revenue from trial production is capitalized to CWIP, making reported revenue not fully representative of actual sales.; Global demand slowdown and geopolitical risks — Elevated geopolitical risks and high interest rates could impact global textile demand and chemical prices..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.