Berger Paints India Ltd — Q3 FY26
Berger Paints reported a muted Q3 FY26 with standalone revenue growth of just 0.4% YoY, while volume grew 8.5%, reflecting a sharp value-volume gap driven by mix shift toward ec...
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✓ Verified against BSE filing
Claim Ledger
Did management answer the analysts?
Every material analyst question, graded on whether management actually answered it — with the verbatim exchange and quantitative claims checked against filed numbers.
96%Questions answered0Evaded / deflected12Questions auditedContradictedNumbers vs filing
Answered
High priority
Sales growth momentum in Nov/Dec excluding October, and Jan trends.
Asked by Miha, Namura
Management gave specific monthly growth trends.
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Question
if you strip off the month of October uh from the results. how uh is the uh sales growth momentum uh for November and December uh and any insights you can share on how that continuity happened is happening in Jan as well.
Abhijit Roy (MD)
October was negative. November did have a slight positive, December was better than that in mid-single digit type of a growth rate and that is where we are in January as well.
Answered
High priority
Competitive landscape intensity and shifts.
Asked by Miha, Namura
Management provided a clear assessment of competitive intensity.
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Question
any insights on the competitive landscape that you can share uh it remains stable the way it was? is some deceleration or now uh you know gradually the the other players were kind of getting stagnated.
Abhijit Roy (MD)
It remains very stable now. The main player remains at a stable point. Competitive intensity is not increasing, not decreasing. There is a slight gain but not like they were growing at 35-40, now it's 7-12% type of gain.
Answered
High priority
Expectations for volume and value growth next year.
Asked by Miha, Namura
Management gave specific numeric guidance for volume and value growth.
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Question
can one expect any improvement in volumes to go to mid-teens levels in next year and then you can go back to double-digit growth uh in value terms uh over the next year sir
Abhijit Roy (MD)
Double-digit volume growth should happen. If volume growth goes up to say 12-13%, then value growth should be in the range of 7-8%. That's realistic as of today.
Answered
Medium priority
Prioritization of distribution reach vs product innovation for growth.
Asked by Sukrit Patil, Isite Fin Private Limited
Management clearly stated both levers are important and provided details on each.
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Question
how is the management thinking about prioritizing growth levers such as distribution reach and product innovation? Among these, which do you believe will be most critical in strengthening Baja Paint's competitive positioning?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
Both are important. We have been ramping up distribution network at a furious pace in the last 3-4 quarters. Product innovations also continue; we launched two or three products recently. Both will be done simultaneously.
Answered
High priority
Reason for reduced optimism on demand vs last quarter.
Asked by Adita Bhartya
Management explained the reason for the change in outlook with specific factors.
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Question
in the last conference call we sounded a lot more optimistic about demand. This time around it has changed a bit. Just want to understand how are things changing at the ground, why is that optimism not there?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
I was optimistic about 6-7% growth possibly going to 8-9% by Q4. It did pick up but not to the extent we would have loved. There was stock buildup due to elongated rains which got liquidated in Nov-Jan, so replenishment sale did not happen.
Answered
Medium priority
Progress on anti-dumping duty on TiO2.
Asked by Adita Bhartya
Management gave a clear update on the legal outcome and refund status.
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Question
Is there any progress that has been made on anti-dumping duty on TIO2?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
We won this battle in the court. The government had to refund. We got part of the money back, the other part we have applied for. As of now there is no anti-dumping duty on titanium dioxide.
Answered
High priority
Bifurcation of value-volume gap into mix, price, and spends.
Asked by Karthik Jalapa
Management provided a detailed breakdown of the value-volume gap.
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Question
if we were to look at this value volume gap of about 8%. If I were to bifurcate it between mix level changes, price revisions, how will that split look roughly?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
Mix change about 3-3.5% on account of low value high volume products. Direct price drops about 2-2.5%. Increased painter spends about 1.5 odd percentage. All put together this gap is explained.
Answered
Medium priority
Reason for continued value-volume gap assumption of 4-5%.
Asked by Karthik Jalapa
Management explained the rationale for the continued mix shift.
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Question
inherently you are making the assumption that the mix changes is something that will continue isn't it? Why do you think that is the case?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
The growth of these categories is much higher, starting from a low base. The trajectory of growth is much higher and hence this is going to continue for the next possibly one to two years.
Answered
High priority
Reason for slower market share gain vs market leader.
Asked by Karthik Jalapa
Management explained the base effect and competitive dynamics.
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Question
the market leader has probably done slightly better than us. What would you attribute the slowness in our market share gain?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
We have lost a little bit of market share. Market leader also lost market, it has gone mostly to Bir. The competitor leader had a very low base in Q3 and Q4 last year, so they stand at an advantage of 9.5% starting.
Answered
Medium priority
Broader competitive landscape including smaller players and JSW.
Asked by TJ
Management assessed the impact of various competitors.
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Question
there is a long tail of competition also joining the industry, consolidation creating AXO JSW, and Hisha from Pilite entering East India. How would you read that?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
Those type of competitors have been coming for long years. They are not very disruptive. All combined they may impact growth rate by 1-1.5%. The bigger impact is from that one player which is stabilizing.
Partial answer
High priority
Disconnect between industry growth and nominal GDP growth.
Asked by TJ
Management acknowledged the logic but declined to commit to a specific target.
no commitmentconservative guidance
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Question
the government of India is hoping for 10% nominal GDP growth. With low penetration, why are we not even targeting nominal GDP growth rate? Where's the disconnect?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
Logically it should result in 10% growth. But given the current context, we want to be conservative. It may so happen we actually grow at 10% next year, but we don't want to say that and then land up with 4-5%.
Answered
High priority
Capital allocation: capex plans and possibility of buybacks.
Asked by Rishi Modi
Management provided specific capex figures and ruled out buybacks.
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Question
given that we'll be generating close to 1400-1500 crores of cash flow, what amount will be used for organic capex and are we open to doing buybacks?
Abhijit Roy (MD)
We have plans for two factories in Panagar and Orissa, investment of about 1,800 to 2,000 cr. That will absorb a large part of free cash flow. No plans for buyback at this point.
Quantitative claims vs filed numbers
| Claim | Management said | Filing | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume growth in Q3 was 8%. | 8% | 0.4% | Overstated vs filing |
| Volume growth in Q3 was 8%. | 8% | 0.4% | Overstated vs filing |
Filed figures sourced from Screener.in. Claims within a small tolerance of the filing are marked “matches filing”.