Bajaj Auto FY24 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹44,870 Cr revenue · ₹7,708 Cr PAT · 19.8% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY24Current-quarter results and commentary indicate the prior promise was delivered or materially on track.
Q4 FY24Current-quarter results and commentary indicate the prior promise was delivered or materially on track.
Q4 FY24Risks flagged during the year
Forex availability and macroeconomic challenges in key markets (Nigeria, Kenya, Argentina) may delay export volume recovery to peak levels.
Q2 FY24 · highRecent FAME reduction has slowed high-speed EV sales to ~65,000 units/month; further policy changes could dampen Chetak and e-auto growth.
Q3 FY24 · highGeopolitical tensions have caused shipping delays and freight cost doubling, impacting export volumes and margins in the near term.
Q3 FY24 · highNigeria volumes remain at 40-50% of peak due to currency devaluation and macroeconomic challenges, with no quick fix in sight.
Q4 FY24 · highRunaway inflation in key markets like Nigeria and Bangladesh could dampen export recovery.
Q1 FY24 · mediumReduction in FAME subsidies effective June 1 has caused a drop in EV two-wheeler industry volumes; new normal uncertain.
Q1 FY24 · mediumAnalyst raised concern that Triumph Speed 400 may cannibalize KTM/Dominar sales; management claims new customer set but no data provided.
Q1 FY24 · mediumAs EV volumes (lower margin) and export mix (improving but volatile) increase, EBITDA margins could face headwinds despite operating leverage.
Q2 FY24 · mediumExports remain at 66% of FY22 peak; macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical issues could delay recovery.
Q2 FY24 · mediumRecent increase in steel and crude derivatives could pressure margins, though management expects flattish commodity costs in Q3.
Q3 FY24 · mediumManagement noted uptick in costs for ABS, zinc, polypropylene, copper, and rubber, which could pressure margins.
Q3 FY24 · mediumPotential reduction in FAME subsidy could force price cuts, impacting EV margins and competitive positioning.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY24 · Triumph production to reach 5,000 units/month by September
Management expects to hit a production rate of 5,000 units per month for Triumph within Q2, most likely in September.
Q1 FY24 · Exports to improve incrementally each quarter
Management expects gradual build-back in export volumes, with each quarter larger than the previous, but no step jump.
Q1 FY24 · EV CapEx of ₹400-500 crore in FY24
Company plans to spend between ₹400-500 crore on EV-related capital expenditure this year, including a new three-wheeler facility.
Q1 FY24 · Chetak EV network to expand to 120 cities by end of Q2
Exclusive Chetak network will expand to 120 cities with 140 stores by end of Q2, covering ~75% of the industry.
Q2 FY24 · Festive season industry growth of 12-15%
Management expects the 33-day festive period to see double-digit growth vs. like-to-like period last year, with Bajaj outpacing the market.
Q2 FY24 · Chetak monthly sales target of 10,000 units
Target to reach 10,000 units per month in Q3, supported by new launches and network expansion to 180 cities by year-end.
Q2 FY24 · Triumph capacity expansion to 10,000 units/month
Monthly capacity to be expanded to ~10,000 units by end of FY24, with network covering 100 cities.
Q2 FY24 · Export volumes to improve quarter-on-quarter
Expect gradual recovery with each quarter larger than the previous, though return to peak (210,000 units) is some time away.
Q3 FY24 · Chetak monthly volume target of 15,000 units in Q4 FY24
Management targets to reach 15,000 units per month in Q4, up from ~10,000 exit rate in December.
Q3 FY24 · CNG motorcycle launch in FY25
Bajaj is working on a CNG motorcycle and expects to launch it in FY2025.
Q3 FY24 · Export recovery of 2-5% QoQ in Q4 FY24
Management expects sequential export volume improvement of 2-5% in Q4, tempered by Red Sea disruptions.
Q3 FY24 · Triumph capacity expansion to 20,000-30,000 units in H1 FY25
Triumph capacity will be increased from current 10,000 to 20,000 and then 30,000 units in first half of next fiscal.
Q4 FY24 · Domestic industry growth of 7-8% per annum
Management expects the domestic two-wheeler industry to grow at 7-8% annually, with the premium segment growing faster.
Q4 FY24 · FY25 exports to be better than FY24 in volume and revenue
Despite cautious view on stressed markets, overall export volumes and revenue are expected to improve in FY25.
Q4 FY24 · Chetak EV network to expand to 600 stores by H1 FY25
Chetak dealerships will increase from 200 to 600 within the first half of FY25.
Q4 FY24 · Triumph capacity to reach 10,000 units per month in H1
Production capacity for Triumph motorcycles will be ramped up to 10,000 units per month in H1 FY25.