Bajaj Auto vs Tata Motors Q4 FY26

BA

Bajaj Auto

Q4 FY26 · Automobile

Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q4 with revenue of ₹16,060 crore (+32% YoY), EBITDA of ₹3,323 crore (+36% YoY), and PAT of ₹2,746 crore (+34% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded 60bps to 20.8%, driven by favorable currency, richer mix, and operating leverage, offsetting 40bps net commodity inflation. All three business segments (domestic 2W, 3W, exports) grew volumes and revenues by ~20% and ~30% respectively. Exports hit a new high of ~$600M, with Latin America delivering 11 consecutive quarters of growth. Domestic 150cc+ segment market share is recovering, with Pulsar N/NS growing at twice the industry rate. Chetak crossed 1 lakh quarterly retail for the first time, and the electric portfolio achieved double-digit EBITDA margins. Management expects near-term motorcycle industry growth to moderate to 7-9%, but sees continued momentum in premium segments and EVs. Key risk: sharp commodity inflation (3.5-4% of revenue impact in Q1) may pressure margins if pricing and cost actions fall short.

Guidance read

Exports target of 220,000+ units per month in Q1 FY27: Management expects to push monthly export volumes beyond 220,000 units in the current quarter, up from ~200,000, despite loss of Gulf business. Commodity cost inflation impact of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 FY27: CFO estimates material cost inflation of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 over Q4, driven by sharp increases in steel, aluminum, copper, and noble metals. Pricing actions to cover ~40% of commodity inflation taken from April 1: Price hikes implemented to offset about 40% of the estimated cost impact; further pricing considered as a last resort. New Pulsar models in 125cc and 150cc+ segments launching in July: Management confirmed new Pulsar variants will hit the market in July, aiming to further strengthen share in the premium segment.

Risk read

Key risks include Sharp commodity inflation in Q1 FY27 — CFO flagged 3.5-4% of revenue cost impact from commodities, with steel up 15%, copper 20%, and aluminum/noble metals up 35-45%. This could pressure margins if not fully offset.; Demand moderation in domestic motorcycles — Management noted industry growth slowed from 20% in Q4 to 7-9% in April, partly due to price hikes and LPG shortage impacting consumer sentiment. Further slowdown could affect volumes.; Supply chain disruptions (LPG, manpower, logistics) — Management admitted 10-15% impairment in servicing demand due to LPG shortages, manpower migration, and container availability issues. While being managed, these could persist.; Geopolitical risks in Middle East affecting exports — Analyst raised concern about Gulf region disruptions; management confirmed loss of 5,000-6,000 units per month in Middle East due to geopolitical issues, with further risks if situation escalates..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

TA

Tata Motors

Q4 FY26 · Automobile

Tata Motors delivered a strong Q4 FY26, with standalone revenue of ₹24,500 crore (+22% YoY) and EBITDA margin of 13.9% (+130 bps YoY), marking the 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit margins. Full-year revenue reached ₹77,000 crore (+11% YoY) and EBITDA margin expanded to 13.2% from 7.8% three years ago. The CV business saw wholesale volumes of 131,800 units (+25% YoY) in Q4, driven by new product launches and market share gains, including the highest HCV market share in a decade. International business grew 17% YoY in Q4, supported by a landmark 70,000-unit order from Indonesia. Management highlighted commodity cost pressures (100 bps impact in Q4, more in Q1 FY27) and a cautious near-term outlook due to diesel price sensitivity and Middle East disruptions. They guided for single-digit volume growth in Q1 FY27 and maintained capex guidance of 2-4% of revenue. Key risk: sustained commodity inflation and inability to pass through costs could pressure margins.

Guidance read

Q1 FY27 volume growth expected to be single-digit: Management expects single-digit volume growth in Q1 FY27 despite commodity headwinds and diesel price uncertainty. Capex guidance of 2-4% of revenue for FY27: Capital expenditure expected to remain in the 2-4% of revenue range, consistent with prior years. EV penetration in SCV pickup expected in high single digits: EV penetration in SCV pickup rose to ~7% in recent months; management expects it to stay in high single-digit zone.

Risk read

Key risks include Commodity cost inflation and rupee devaluation — Commodity headwinds caused ~100 bps margin impact in Q4 and are expected to be more severe in Q1 FY27. Management has only partially passed on costs via a 2% price hike.; Diesel price sensitivity and demand impact — Diesel is 30-50% of TCO for transporters; rising diesel prices could delay purchase decisions, especially in HCVs. Management noted customers postponing decisions.; Middle East and North Africa disruption — No shipments to Middle East in last two months due to geopolitical tensions; exports to the region have been recalibrated.; EV bus market participation and pricing sustainability — Management described current tender pricing as 'unsustainable' and is bidding prudently, which may limit volume growth in electric buses..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.