Bajaj Auto vs Maruti Suzuki Q4 FY26

BA

Bajaj Auto

Q4 FY26 · Automobile

Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q4 with revenue of ₹16,060 crore (+32% YoY), EBITDA of ₹3,323 crore (+36% YoY), and PAT of ₹2,746 crore (+34% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded 60bps to 20.8%, driven by favorable currency, richer mix, and operating leverage, offsetting 40bps net commodity inflation. All three business segments (domestic 2W, 3W, exports) grew volumes and revenues by ~20% and ~30% respectively. Exports hit a new high of ~$600M, with Latin America delivering 11 consecutive quarters of growth. Domestic 150cc+ segment market share is recovering, with Pulsar N/NS growing at twice the industry rate. Chetak crossed 1 lakh quarterly retail for the first time, and the electric portfolio achieved double-digit EBITDA margins. Management expects near-term motorcycle industry growth to moderate to 7-9%, but sees continued momentum in premium segments and EVs. Key risk: sharp commodity inflation (3.5-4% of revenue impact in Q1) may pressure margins if pricing and cost actions fall short.

Guidance read

Exports target of 220,000+ units per month in Q1 FY27: Management expects to push monthly export volumes beyond 220,000 units in the current quarter, up from ~200,000, despite loss of Gulf business. Commodity cost inflation impact of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 FY27: CFO estimates material cost inflation of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 over Q4, driven by sharp increases in steel, aluminum, copper, and noble metals. Pricing actions to cover ~40% of commodity inflation taken from April 1: Price hikes implemented to offset about 40% of the estimated cost impact; further pricing considered as a last resort. New Pulsar models in 125cc and 150cc+ segments launching in July: Management confirmed new Pulsar variants will hit the market in July, aiming to further strengthen share in the premium segment.

Risk read

Key risks include Sharp commodity inflation in Q1 FY27 — CFO flagged 3.5-4% of revenue cost impact from commodities, with steel up 15%, copper 20%, and aluminum/noble metals up 35-45%. This could pressure margins if not fully offset.; Demand moderation in domestic motorcycles — Management noted industry growth slowed from 20% in Q4 to 7-9% in April, partly due to price hikes and LPG shortage impacting consumer sentiment. Further slowdown could affect volumes.; Supply chain disruptions (LPG, manpower, logistics) — Management admitted 10-15% impairment in servicing demand due to LPG shortages, manpower migration, and container availability issues. While being managed, these could persist.; Geopolitical risks in Middle East affecting exports — Analyst raised concern about Gulf region disruptions; management confirmed loss of 5,000-6,000 units per month in Middle East due to geopolitical issues, with further risks if situation escalates..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

MA

Maruti Suzuki

Q4 FY26 · Diversified

Maruti Suzuki reported a record Q4 with net sales of ₹50,010 crore (+28.5% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹4,400 crore (+30.4% YoY), driven by a sharp recovery in small car demand post-GST reform and strong export growth. PAT declined 6.9% to ₹3,600 crore due to a ₹750 crore mark-to-market hit on bond yields. The company guided for ~10% volume growth in FY27, supported by capacity additions of 500,000 units (Koda phase 2 commissioned, Gujarat line 4 coming). Management expressed confidence in margin trajectory despite commodity headwinds, citing multiple levers. Key risk: sustained geopolitical tensions could keep commodity/energy costs elevated, delaying margin expansion.

Guidance read

Volume growth of ~10% in FY27: Management expects Maruti's domestic sales volume to grow by about 10% in FY27, driven by new capacity and strong demand. Additional 250,000 units capacity in FY27: Koda phase 2 (April 2026) and Gujarat line 4 (within FY27) each add 250,000 units annual capacity, totaling 500,000 units. Capex of ₹14,000 crore for FY27: Capital expenditure for FY27 is planned at ₹14,000 crore, primarily for the two new plants. Medium-term capacity target of 4 million units: The company has plans to increase total production capacity to 4 million units per annum in the medium term.

Risk read

Key risks include Geopolitical tensions impacting commodity/energy costs — West Asia conflict and supply chain disruptions could keep commodity and energy prices elevated, pressuring margins.; Mark-to-market volatility on investment portfolio — Hardening bond yields caused a ₹750 crore MTM hit in Q4; further interest rate changes could impact other income.; Startup costs from new capacity additions — While management expects no significant startup costs, ramp-up of 500,000 units could temporarily impact margins if demand softens.; Export uncertainty due to global macro — Management declined to give export guidance due to geopolitical uncertainty, indicating potential downside risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.