Bajaj Auto vs Hyundai Motor India Q4 FY26

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Bajaj Auto

Q4 FY26 · Automobile

Bajaj Auto delivered a record Q4 with revenue of ₹16,060 crore (+32% YoY), EBITDA of ₹3,323 crore (+36% YoY), and PAT of ₹2,746 crore (+34% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded 60bps to 20.8%, driven by favorable currency, richer mix, and operating leverage, offsetting 40bps net commodity inflation. All three business segments (domestic 2W, 3W, exports) grew volumes and revenues by ~20% and ~30% respectively. Exports hit a new high of ~$600M, with Latin America delivering 11 consecutive quarters of growth. Domestic 150cc+ segment market share is recovering, with Pulsar N/NS growing at twice the industry rate. Chetak crossed 1 lakh quarterly retail for the first time, and the electric portfolio achieved double-digit EBITDA margins. Management expects near-term motorcycle industry growth to moderate to 7-9%, but sees continued momentum in premium segments and EVs. Key risk: sharp commodity inflation (3.5-4% of revenue impact in Q1) may pressure margins if pricing and cost actions fall short.

Guidance read

Exports target of 220,000+ units per month in Q1 FY27: Management expects to push monthly export volumes beyond 220,000 units in the current quarter, up from ~200,000, despite loss of Gulf business. Commodity cost inflation impact of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 FY27: CFO estimates material cost inflation of 3.5-4% of revenue in Q1 over Q4, driven by sharp increases in steel, aluminum, copper, and noble metals. Pricing actions to cover ~40% of commodity inflation taken from April 1: Price hikes implemented to offset about 40% of the estimated cost impact; further pricing considered as a last resort. New Pulsar models in 125cc and 150cc+ segments launching in July: Management confirmed new Pulsar variants will hit the market in July, aiming to further strengthen share in the premium segment.

Risk read

Key risks include Sharp commodity inflation in Q1 FY27 — CFO flagged 3.5-4% of revenue cost impact from commodities, with steel up 15%, copper 20%, and aluminum/noble metals up 35-45%. This could pressure margins if not fully offset.; Demand moderation in domestic motorcycles — Management noted industry growth slowed from 20% in Q4 to 7-9% in April, partly due to price hikes and LPG shortage impacting consumer sentiment. Further slowdown could affect volumes.; Supply chain disruptions (LPG, manpower, logistics) — Management admitted 10-15% impairment in servicing demand due to LPG shortages, manpower migration, and container availability issues. While being managed, these could persist.; Geopolitical risks in Middle East affecting exports — Analyst raised concern about Gulf region disruptions; management confirmed loss of 5,000-6,000 units per month in Middle East due to geopolitical issues, with further risks if situation escalates..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Hyundai Motor India reported Q4 FY26 revenue of ₹18,916 crore, up 5.4% YoY, driven by record domestic volumes (166,578 units, +8.5% YoY) and export growth of 9.4%. However, EBITDA margin contracted 370 bps YoY to 10.4% due to elevated commodity costs, capacity addition expenses, and unfavorable mix. PAT fell 22% to ₹1,256 crore. Management guided for FY27 domestic and export volume growth of 8-10% each, supported by two new SUV launches (one EV, one ICE) and a record capex of ₹7,500 crore. Margins are expected to remain within the 11-14% range, aided by price hikes, cost optimization, and improved Chennai plant utilization. Key risk: sustained geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East could pressure export volumes.

Guidance read

Domestic volume growth of 8-10% in FY27: Management expects domestic sales to grow 8-10% year-on-year, outpacing industry growth of 4-6%. Export volume growth of 8-10% in FY27: Despite geopolitical uncertainties, export volumes are guided to grow 8-10% in FY27. EBITDA margin within 11-14% range in FY27: Management reiterated its margin guidance of 11-14% for FY27, supported by volume growth, price hikes, and cost optimization. Capex of ₹7,500 crore in FY27: Record capital expenditure planned, with 45-50% for new products and ~30% for plant expansion and upgrades.

Risk read

Key risks include Geopolitical disruptions in Middle East — Export volumes to the Middle East have been impacted by the ongoing war, and further escalation could hinder export growth targets.; Commodity price inflation — Elevated commodity prices caused a 120 bps sequential margin impact in Q4, and near-term headwinds are expected to persist.; EV profitability and adoption risk — The upcoming dedicated EV may have lower margins than ICE models, and its success in a high-volume segment is unproven.; Capacity utilization at Pune plant — The Pune plant is currently operating at two shifts; adding a third shift or ramping up volumes may be needed to absorb fixed costs..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.