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AUBANK Diversified 25 Jan 2024

AU Small Finance Bank Limited — Q3 FY24

AU Small Finance Bank reported Q3 FY24 results in line with expectations, with balance sheet crossing INR 100,000 crore and deposits growing 31% YoY to over INR 80,000 crore.

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AU Small Finance Bank reported Q3 FY24 results in line with expectations, with balance sheet crossing INR 100,000 crore and deposits growing 31% YoY to over INR 80,000 crore. Loan book (gross of securitization) crossed INR 75,000 crore. Net interest margin contracted 6 bps QoQ to 5.5% due to elevated cost of funds (up 20 bps QoQ). Credit cost normalized to 62 bps, with credit card book contributing 18 bps. Gross NPA rose 7 bps to 1.98% partly due to securitization and seasonal collection disruptions from state elections. Management emphasized deposit-led growth strategy and investments in credit cards, digital, and brand. Merger with Fincare received CCI approval; final RBI approval awaited. Guidance: NIM at lower end of 5.5% for FY24; credit card breakeven expected by FY25-end. Risk: Rising credit costs from unsecured books (credit card, MFI post-merger) could pressure profitability if not offset by higher yields.

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Promises 3 promises

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0 delivered, 0 close, 3 missed.

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Risk Intelligence

Elevated credit cost on credit card book

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Quarter Snapshot

Deposits INR 80,000 crore
+31% YoY

Total deposits crossed INR 80,000 crore, driven by retail and CASA growth.

CASA Ratio 33%
flat QoQ

CASA ratio stable at 33%; CASA plus retail term deposits at 64% of total deposits.

Credit Card Base 8.3 lakh cards
+20% QoQ (approx)

Credit card portfolio grew to 8.3 lakh cards; launched co-branded card with ixigo.

Securitization Book INR 8,500 crore
+INR 2,700 crore QoQ

Securitized INR 2,700 crore in Q3; total securitization book reached INR 8,500 crore.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q3 FY24 vs Q2 FY24
4 new guidance4 dropped4 new risk4 risk resolved
NEW
NIM for FY24 at lower end of 5.5%

Management guided that full-year NIM will be at the lower end of 5.5%, considering cost of funds pressure and securitization income recognition.

NEW
Credit card breakeven by FY25-end

Management expects credit card business to break even by the last quarter of FY25, as the book seasons and term book builds.

NEW
Loan growth of 26-27% by March 2024

Sanjay Agarwal guided that on-book loan growth will be around 26-27% by end of FY24, partly due to base effect.

NEW
Investment spend on new businesses to continue at similar run-rate

Operating expenses for credit cards, QR, and video banking will remain elevated with ~55-60% growth in these cost heads next year as well.

DROPPED
Full-year loan growth of 25-26%

Management guided for on-balance sheet advances growth of 25-26% for FY24, driven by liability growth.

DROPPED
NIM within guided range for FY24

NIM of 5.5% in Q2 remains within the guided range for the full year, despite structural pressure.

DROPPED
Cost-to-income ratio similar to FY23

Full-year cost-to-income ratio expected to land similar to last financial year, despite investments.

DROPPED
MFI book to be ~10% of balance sheet post-merger

Post-merger, MFI will be 8% of balance sheet, intended to be kept around 10% going forward.

NEW RISK
Elevated credit cost on credit card book

Credit card credit cost is currently ~6-6.5% annualized, higher than industry steady-state, and may not normalize until the book reaches larger scale.

NEW RISK
Margin pressure from rising cost of funds

Cost of funds increased 78 bps in 9M FY24 and 20 bps QoQ; NIM contracted 6 bps QoQ to 5.5%. Further hikes could compress margins.

NEW RISK
Post-merger integration and MFI credit risk

Fincare merger adds MFI book with ~3% expected credit cost; integration and asset quality management remain key risks.

NEW RISK
High NTB credit card issuance may lead to adverse selection

75% of credit cards issued to new-to-bank customers with average limit of INR 1.74 lakh, which could result in higher delinquencies as the book seasons.

RISK GONE
Integration challenges from merger

Merging with Fincare adds 15,000 employees and 1,300 touchpoints; cultural and operational integration could distract management.

RISK GONE
MFI credit cost cyclicality

MFI business has inherent cyclicality with credit costs spiking every 3-5 years; management plans conservative provisioning but risk remains.

RISK GONE
Sustained margin compression

NIM declined to 5.5% due to structural mix shift and rising deposit costs; further pressure expected if competition intensifies.

RISK GONE
Deposit franchise pressure

CASA ratio declined 4pp since March; tight liquidity and high competition may keep cost of funds elevated.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

Credit cost to remain similar to FY23

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

Full-year cost-to-income ratio expected to land similar to last financial year, despite investments.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance NIM for FY24 at lower end of 5.5%

Management guided that full-year NIM will be at the lower end of 5.5%, considering cost of funds pressure and securitization income recognition.

Top risk Elevated credit cost on credit card book

Credit card credit cost is currently ~6-6.5% annualized, higher than industry steady-state, and may not normalize until the book reaches larger scale.

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