Adani Total Gas FY25 Annual Earnings Summary
4 quarters covered · ₹4,999 Cr revenue · ₹655 Cr PAT · 22.8% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q2 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY25Risks flagged during the year
A 16% reduction in APM gas allocation from October 16 could increase gas costs and pressure margins.
Q3 FY25 · highAPM allocation for CNG was cut twice in Q3; further reductions could pressure margins despite restoration to 51% in January.
Q4 FY25 · highAPM allocation for CNG dropped to 37% in Q4; further cuts could increase gas costs and compress margins.
Q4 FY25 · highReliance on new well gas and HPHT gas at higher prices may erode profitability if APM allocation remains low.
Q1 FY25 · mediumAPM allocation reduced by ~2% in Q1, impacting gross spreads. Management expects normalization but risk of further cuts remains.
Q1 FY25 · mediumOPEX per SCM has risen from ₹4.84 in FY22 to ~₹6 in FY24 due to front-ending costs in newer GAs. Management expects temporary pressure until pipeline network is built.
Q1 FY25 · mediumCBG production cost is higher than APM gas; profitability depends on subsidies, carbon credits, and fertilizer sales. Management acknowledged the challenge.
Q2 FY25 · mediumIf CNG prices are not raised sufficiently, EBITDA margins may decline; management has not yet passed on costs.
Q2 FY25 · mediumRaising CNG prices to offset higher costs could dampen demand and slow volume growth.
Q2 FY25 · mediumThe replacement gas is priced at a premium (12% over basket price) and allocation is only until March 2025, creating uncertainty.
Q3 FY25 · mediumReliance on costlier spot and HPHT gas (25% of portfolio) could compress margins if APM allocation remains low.
Q3 FY25 · mediumAnalyst raised concern about quarterly review cycle; management could not provide clarity on future allocation changes.
What changed through the year
Q1 FY25 · 10 LNG stations to be commissioned in FY25
ATGL targets commissioning 10 LNG stations in the current financial year, with the first station in Tirupur, Tamil Nadu.
Q1 FY25 · Jalandhar GA to start CNG dispensing within 1.5 months
ATGL expects to commission 3-4 CNG stations in Jalandhar within 1.5 months and begin CNG dispensing.
Q1 FY25 · CBG plant commissioning completed, diversifying feedstock
Phase 1 of the Barsana biomass plant is commissioned; ATGL is adding paddy straw and pressmud feedstock to increase CBG and fertilizer output.
Q2 FY25 · Calibrated CNG price increase expected
Management plans to pass on some cost increases to consumers in a calibrated manner to balance volume growth and margins.
Q2 FY25 · CapEx acceleration via $375M financing
The company raised $375 million to accelerate network infrastructure development over the next 24 months.
Q2 FY25 · EV charging points target of 3,000
Management aims to reach 3,000 EV charging points in the near future.
Q2 FY25 · LNG for transport and mining expansion
First LNG station commissioned in Tiruppur; more stations under construction to cater to long-haul trucks and mining.
Q3 FY25 · Capex of ₹900-1,000 crore for FY25
Management guided total capex for FY25 to be around ₹900-1,000 crore, including newer businesses.
Q3 FY25 · EV charging points target of 3,000 by March-April 2025
Aim to reach around 3,000 EV charging points by March to April 2025, up from 1,914 currently.
Q3 FY25 · EBITDA per SCM expected to remain in similar range
Management expects EBITDA per SCM to remain around ₹10-12, balancing volume growth and cost optimization.
Q4 FY25 · Double-digit volume growth in FY26
Management expects to maintain double-digit volume growth, supported by new GA ramp-up and infrastructure expansion.
Q4 FY25 · Capex of ~INR 900 crore in FY26
Capital expenditure for FY26 is expected to be similar to FY25, around INR 900 crore, focused on monetizing assets.
Q4 FY25 · EV business investment of INR 70-80 crore in FY26
Planned investment in e-mobility subsidiary for the coming year is INR 70-80 crore, with 1,500-2,000 new charge points.