Alkem Laboratories vs Senco Gold Q3 FY26

AL

Alkem Laboratories

Q3 FY26 · Other

Alkem delivered a stable Q3 with total revenue of ₹3,737 crore (+10.7% YoY) and EBITDA margin of 22.2%. Domestic business grew 5.5% reported but ~10% on a normalized basis, driven by strong chronic portfolio and market share gains across six therapies. International sales surged 26.6% YoY to ₹1,216 crore. The highlight was the announcement of a 55% stake acquisition in Occlutech, a structural heart medtech company, for ~₹1,100 crore, with plans to scale revenue to ₹1,000 crore in 3-5 years and improve EBITDA margins from 4% to 25%. Management reiterated full-year guidance and bullish outlook. Key risk: MIP on penicillin derivatives could impact gross margins by 50-100 bps, though inventory and pricing actions may mitigate.

Guidance read

Domestic business to grow 100-150 bps above IPM: Management expects domestic business to continue growing 100-150 bps above IPM growth, with FY26 ending at ~10% growth. Occlutech EBITDA margin to reach 25% in 3-5 years: Occlutech's EBITDA margin is expected to improve from current ~4% to 25% in 3-5 years, driven by operating leverage and product mix. Occlutech revenue CAGR of 14% over 5 years: Occlutech is expected to grow at 14% CAGR over the next 5 years, reaching ~₹780 crore, excluding new products. Denosumab US entry by end of FY26: Denosumab US launch expected by end of FY26, pending FDA inspection and litigation resolution.

Risk read

Key risks include MIP on penicillin derivatives impacting gross margins — The government's MIP on penicillin derivatives could impact gross margins by 50-100 bps, though management expects to mitigate via pricing actions in trade generic business.; Occlutech integration and execution risk — Occlutech operates in a different segment (medtech) with complex regulatory and manufacturing requirements; integration and scaling may face challenges.; Denosumab litigation delay — US entry for denosumab is subject to ongoing litigation with Amgen, which could delay launch beyond FY26.; Trade generic business headwinds — Trade generic business has been flat to low single-digit growth due to competitive pressures and conscious margin protection, potentially dragging overall domestic growth..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Senco Gold delivered a historic Q3 FY26 with revenue of ₹3,000 Cr (+50% YoY), EBITDA of ₹400 Cr (13.2% margin, +210bps YoY), and PAT of ₹264 Cr (+689% YoY). The stellar performance was driven by strong festive and wedding demand, a shift to lightweight and diamond studded jewelry (studded value +38% YoY), and operating leverage from higher own-store sales (65% of revenue). Management guided for Q4 revenue growth of 25-30% YoY and a sustainable EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8% for FY27, with near-term margins benefiting from elevated gold prices. Key risks include gold price volatility impacting volume growth (gold volume -10% in 9M) and working capital strain from high inventory levels (₹4,602 Cr).

Guidance read

Q4 FY26 revenue growth of 25-30% YoY: Management guided for 25-30% revenue growth in Q4, conservatively, despite gold price volatility and seasonal factors like Holi. FY27 sustainable EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8%: For FY27, management expects EBITDA margin of 7.5-7.8% at current gold prices, with 7.3-7.5% if prices moderate. FY27 store addition of 18-20 stores: Plans to open 18-20 stores in FY27, with a mix of 8-10 own stores and 8-10 franchise stores, focusing on franchise expansion. Hedging ratio to remain 55-60% near-term: Hedging ratio will stay at 55-60% due to gold price volatility and working capital constraints; may increase to 80-90% if stability returns.

Risk read

Key risks include Gold price volatility impacting volume — Gold volume declined 10% in 9M FY26; further price spikes could compress consumer budgets and reduce footfalls, pressuring revenue growth.; Working capital strain from high inventory — Inventory value rose to ₹4,602 Cr (from ₹2,963 Cr), funded by borrowings; elevated gold prices increase working capital needs and interest costs.; Hedging policy opacity and margin call risk — Management declined to disclose detailed hedging strategies; recent gold price swings caused margin calls, and low hedging (55-60%) exposes balance sheet to price drops.; Realization gain dependency on gold price rise — 2-2.5% of EBITDA margin in 9M came from realization gains; if gold prices stabilize or fall, margins could revert to 7.5-7.8% guidance..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.