Alkem Laboratories Management Guidance Tracker

40 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 10 quarters.

Margins

Q2 FY24FY24 EBITDA margin guidance raised to >16%Tracked

Management expects full-year EBITDA margin to exceed the earlier guidance of 16%, driven by cost optimization and gross margin improvement.

Q2 FY24FY24 gross margin guidance maintained at 59.5%Tracked

Despite Q2 gross margin of 61%, management maintains annual guidance of ~59.5% due to expected normalization of U.S. product mix.

Q3 FY24Full-year EBITDA margin guidance of ~17%Active

Management expects FY24 EBITDA margin around 17%, with Q4 seasonally weaker but sustainable at that level.

Q3 FY24Annual margin improvement of 50-100bpsTracked

Management reiterated internal target of 50-100bps annual EBITDA margin improvement going forward.

Q4 FY24EBITDA Margin to Remain at Current LevelsTracked

EBITDA margin expected to be in line with FY24 levels (~17.7%), with potential 20-30 bps improvement but offset by investments.

Q1 FY25Full-year EBITDA margin around 18%Tracked

Management expects EBITDA margin for FY25 to be around 18%, similar to last year, despite gross margin improvement, due to investments in new growth initiatives.

Q1 FY25Gross margin improvement of ~150 bps to 62.5%Tracked

Full-year gross margin expected to improve to 62.5% from 61% in FY24, driven by favorable API pricing and product mix.

Q2 FY25EBITDA margin improvement of ~100bps to 18.5-19% for FY25Active

Full-year EBITDA margin expected to be 18.5-19%, driven by cost controls and product mix improvement.

Q3 FY25Full-year EBITDA margin guidance maintained at 19%Active

Despite 21.6% margin in 9M, Q4 is seasonally weak with higher R&D spend (5 filings), so full-year margin expected around 19%.

Q4 FY25EBITDA margin guidance of ~19.5% for FY26Tracked

Management expects EBITDA margins to remain stable at around 19.5% in FY26, supported by operating leverage and despite higher R&D investments.

Q1 FY26FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of ~19.5% maintainedTracked

Management reiterated the 19-20% EBITDA margin guidance for FY26, despite strong Q1 performance, citing higher R&D and new business OpEx in H2.

Q2 FY26Full-year EBITDA margin guidance of 19.5-20%Tracked

Despite H2 headwinds from US CDMO OpEx and GST impact, management expects FY26 EBITDA margin of 19.5-20%.

Q3 FY26Occlutech EBITDA margin of 23-24% in 3 yearsTracked

Occlutech's EBITDA margin is expected to reach 23-24% within three years, up from current ~4%.

Q3 FY26Alkem Medtech EBITDA margin of 25% in 4-5 yearsTracked

Alkem Medtech (including Occlutech) is expected to achieve 25% EBITDA margin in 4-5 years.

Revenue

Q2 FY24U.S. business high single-digit dollar growth for FY24Tracked

Management expects full-year U.S. revenue growth in high single digits in dollar terms over FY23.

Q4 FY24FY25 Revenue Growth ~10%Tracked

Management expects overall revenue growth of around 10% in FY25, driven by domestic volume growth and stable US business.

Q1 FY25US business single-digit growth with new launchesActive

US business expected to see single-digit growth, with Dabigatran contributing meaningfully from Q3/Q4.

Q2 FY25Domestic revenue growth of 8-9% for FY25Active

Management maintains full-year domestic growth guidance of 8-9%, with Q4 expected to be particularly strong.

Q2 FY25US business flattish to mid-single-digit erosion for FY25Active

US revenue expected to decline flattish to mid-single-digit for the full year, with H2 performance better than H1.

Q3 FY25Domestic business to grow in line with IPM (~7%) for FY25Active

Q4 implied growth of ~9.5-10% driven by strong secondary optics and low base.

Q3 FY25US business expected to be flat YoY in Q4Active

Improved from -22% in Q2 to -7% in Q3; supply normalization should lead to neutral growth by Q4.

Q4 FY25US business mid-single-digit growth in FY26Tracked

US revenue is expected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate in FY26, driven by 5-6 new product launches and improved supply.

Q1 FY26U.S. business mid-to-high single digit growth expectedActive

U.S. business is expected to grow mid-to-high single digit in FY26, subject to tariff and pricing trends.

Q2 FY26US business to deliver low double-digit growth in FY26Tracked

US growth expected to be ~10-11% for FY26, driven by new launches including Sacubitril/Valsartan.

Q2 FY26US CDMO plant to reach INR 300 crore annual run rate in 12-18 monthsTracked

The US CDMO plant is expected to achieve an annual revenue run rate of INR 300 crore within 12-18 months of operations.

Q3 FY26Occlutech revenue CAGR of 14% over 5 yearsTracked

Occlutech is expected to grow at a 14% CAGR over the next five years from existing products, excluding new product launches.

Growth

Q2 FY248-9 ANDA filings in FY24Tracked

R&D filings will be back-ended; targeting 8-9 ANDA filings for the full year, with focus on complex products.

Q3 FY24Enzene biosimilar breakeven this yearActive

Biosimilar subsidiary Enzene expected to achieve breakeven in FY24 with revenue run-rate of ~₹200 Cr.

Q4 FY24R&D Spend to Rise to 4.5-5%Tracked

R&D expenditure is expected to increase from 4.1% in FY24 to 4.5-5% of revenue in FY25, driven by biosimilar clinical trials.

Q1 FY25Domestic business growth in line with IPM (8-10%)Active

India business expected to grow in line with the Indian pharmaceutical market, which is projected at 8-10%.

Q4 FY25Domestic business to outperform IPM by 100 bps in FY26Tracked

India business is expected to grow at least 100 basis points above the IPM growth rate of 7-8%.

Q1 FY26India business to grow 100-250 bps faster than IPMActive

Management expects India business to continue outperforming the IPM by 100-250 basis points, with IPM growth assumed at 8-9%.

Q2 FY26India business to outperform IPM by 100-150 bpsActive

Management expects India growth to continue at double-digit, outperforming IPM by 100-150 bps in H2 FY26 and FY27.

Q3 FY26Domestic business to grow 100-150 bps above IPMActive

Management expects domestic business to continue growing 100-150 basis points above the Indian pharmaceutical market growth rate.

Capex

Q3 FY24US facility CapEx of ~₹250 Cr for EnzeneTracked

Company investing ~₹250 Cr in a US biosimilar CDMO facility, expected to be operational in 2-3 years.

Q4 FY24CapEx of INR 600-700 Cr in FY25Tracked

Total CapEx for FY25 is guided at INR 600-700 crore, including ~INR 400 crore for the US CDMO facility and INR 80-100 crore maintenance.

Q4 FY25CapEx of INR 700-750 crore in FY26Tracked

Capital expenditure for FY26 is guided at INR 700-750 crore, including ~INR 200 crore for the Engine CDMO plant and routine maintenance.

Q1 FY26CapEx of INR 750 crore for FY26Tracked

Capital expenditure for FY26 is guided at INR 750 crore, primarily for CDMO and biosimilar facilities.

Expansion

Q2 FY25Enzyme plant commissioning by Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY26Active

The US biologic CDMO plant is expected to begin production by Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY26, with break-even targeted in the first year.

Ai Strategy

Q3 FY25Semaglutide launch in first wave in IndiaTracked

Alkem has developed its own product, filed with regulator, and plans to be among the first to launch.