Adani Power vs Tata Power Q4 FY26

AD

Adani Power

Q4 FY26 · Energy

Adani Power reported a strong Q4 FY26 with EBITDA of ₹6,498 crore, up 27% YoY, driven by higher PPA tariffs, cost discipline, and improved operating efficiency. PAT surged 64% YoY to ₹4,700 crore, aided by lower tax charges. Full-year PAT stood at ₹12,971 crore, demonstrating earnings resilience despite subdued merchant prices. The company has tied up 95% of its 18.15 GW operating capacity under long/medium-term PPAs, reducing merchant exposure to 5%. Capacity expansion is on track: Korba Phase 2 (1.32 GW) to commission in Q2 FY27, Mahan (1.6 GW) by Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28. Management guided for EBITDA to reach ₹50,000 crore by FY30-31. Key risk: merchant prices could decline further as renewable penetration increases, impacting residual open capacity.

Guidance read

Korba Phase 2 commissioning in Q2 FY27: The 1.32 GW Korba Phase 2 project is expected to commission between June and September 2026. Mahan commissioning by Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28: First unit of Mahan (1.6 GW) likely by end of FY27, second unit six months later. Capex of ₹25,000 cr in FY27 and ₹33,000 cr in FY28: Capital expenditure for capacity expansion estimated at ₹25,000 crore in FY27 and ₹33,000 crore in FY28. EBITDA target of ₹50,000 crore by FY30-31: Management expects EBITDA to reach ₹50,000 crore by 2030-31, driven by capacity expansion and new PPAs.

Risk read

Key risks include Merchant price decline due to renewable addition — Management acknowledged that increasing renewable capacity could suppress merchant power prices, impacting residual open capacity.; Geopolitical impact on project timelines — Analyst raised concern about Mahan delay; management cited geopolitical issues affecting labor and LTG availability, pushing commissioning to FY28.; Bangladesh receivable dispute — Outstanding from Bangladesh Power Development Board has reduced, but a disputed amount is under expert determination; potential escalation to international arbitration..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

TA

Tata Power

Q4 FY26 · Energy

Tata Power delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with PAT of ₹1,416 crore (+8% YoY) and full-year PAT crossing ₹5,000 crore for the first time, driven by robust performance across generation, transmission, distribution, and solar manufacturing. The solar cell and module plant PAT doubled to ₹857 crore, while rooftop solar installations doubled. The Mundra plant is now operating under the supplementary PPA with Gujarat, and agreements with other four states are expected within 4-6 weeks, removing a key overhang. Management guided for ₹25,000 crore capex in FY27, focusing on 2.5 GW of renewable capacity addition (solar, wind, hybrid) and pumped hydro. Risks include potential delays in transmission infrastructure and regulatory asset amortization in Delhi.

Guidance read

Capex of ₹25,000 crore in FY27: Management expects to spend ₹25,000 crore in FY27, including delayed projects from FY26. 2.5 GW renewable capacity addition in FY27: Target to commission 2.5 GW of renewable capacity (solar, wind, hybrid) in FY27. Rooftop solar growth of 50-60% in FY27: Expects rooftop solar business to grow 50-60% in FY27, maintaining ~20% market share. Mundra SPA with four states in 4-6 weeks: Expects to finalize supplementary PPAs with remaining four states within 4-6 weeks.

Risk read

Key risks include Transmission infrastructure delays — Delays in transmission lines and right-of-way issues caused capex shortfall in FY26 and may persist.; Regulatory asset amortization in Delhi — Supreme Court has directed amortization of regulatory assets by 2032; any deviation could impact cash flows.; Indonesian coal tax/royalty changes — Potential new taxes on coal exports from Indonesia could increase costs, though coal is pass-through in PPAs.; Curtailment risk for renewable projects — Curtailment due to inadequate evacuation infrastructure impacted PLF in FY26; management is now cautious on new projects..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.