Adaniports vs Schneider Electric Infrastructure Q3 FY26

Adani Ports delivered a strong Q3 FY26, with all four business pillars achieving high double-digit growth. Domestic ports reached a record 40.6% container market share for nine months, while international ports generated INR 1,000 crore quarterly revenue. Logistics revenue surged 62% YoY to INR 1,121 crore. The company raised its full-year EBITDA guidance by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, driven by operational excellence and financial discipline. Management reiterated its FY2029 target of INR 65,500 crore revenue and INR 36,500 crore EBITDA, with a clear path to 1 billion ton cargo volume. Key risks include global trade disruptions from geopolitical turmoil and the ramp-up of the NQXT acquisition, though leverage remains controlled at 1.8x. The CFO transition is planned, with a successor to be announced next quarter.

Guidance read

FY2026 EBITDA guidance raised to INR 22,800 crore: Full-year EBITDA guidance increased by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, including one quarter of NQXT contribution (INR 300 crore EBITDA). FY2029 revenue target of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore: Management reiterated the five-year plan targets, with revenue of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore by FY2029. Vizhinjam Phase II expansion to add 4.1M TEUs capacity by FY2029: INR 16,000 crore capex for Vizhinjam Phase II, increasing total capacity to 5.7M TEUs, with cash flows spread from FY2026 to FY2030. Coal proportion expected to settle at 20-22% in five years: Management guided that coal's share of total cargo will decline to 20-22% over five years, driven by container and oil & gas growth.

Risk read

Key risks include Global trade disruption from geopolitical turmoil — CEO noted that a major conflict between countries impacting global trade could derail the FY2029 targets, though minor events like Red Sea disruptions have negligible impact.; Gopalpur port margin decline and turnaround uncertainty — Gopalpur reported negative EBITDA this quarter due to fixed costs and volume decline. Management acknowledged a turnaround program but provided no specific timeline.; NQXT contract renegotiation timing and margin trajectory — Analyst raised concerns about NQXT contract renegotiations; management indicated major volume renegotiations only in FY2029, with margins remaining around 65-70%.; Coal volume decline from thermal coal import slowdown — Thermal coal imports declined 2.7% all-India, impacting Mundra volumes. Management expects coal proportion to fall to 20-22% but faces structural demand risk..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

Schneider Electric Infrastructure delivered a record quarter, crossing ₹1,000 crore in revenue for the first time, with 20% YoY growth. Order booking surged 60% YoY to ₹999 crore, driving the order backlog to ₹1,700 crore (up >50% YoY). PAT grew 20% YoY to ₹155 crore, aided by operating leverage and cost control. Management highlighted strong tailwinds from government capex, data centers, renewables, and urbanization. The launch of the indigenously developed GM set switchgear positions the company for high-growth segments. Risks include raw material volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, which management aims to mitigate through hedging and selective contract execution. Overall, the company is at an inflection point with robust demand visibility.

Guidance read

Maintain healthy order intake: Management expects to sustain strong order booking momentum driven by government schemes and private capex. Focus on profitable growth: Company aims to pick right contracts and mitigate raw material volatility to protect margins. Capex for capacity expansion: Ongoing capex in three plants to prepare for future demand; details to be announced when approved.

Risk read

Key risks include Raw material cost inflation — Commodity price volatility could impact margins; management hedges partially but not fully.; Geopolitical uncertainties — Global geopolitical situation may affect demand and supply chains, making growth less predictable.; Contract execution risk — Picking the right contracts is critical; wrong selection could lead to margin pressure..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.