Adaniports vs IndiGrid Infrastructure Trust Q3 FY26

Adani Ports delivered a strong Q3 FY26, with all four business pillars achieving high double-digit growth. Domestic ports reached a record 40.6% container market share for nine months, while international ports generated INR 1,000 crore quarterly revenue. Logistics revenue surged 62% YoY to INR 1,121 crore. The company raised its full-year EBITDA guidance by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, driven by operational excellence and financial discipline. Management reiterated its FY2029 target of INR 65,500 crore revenue and INR 36,500 crore EBITDA, with a clear path to 1 billion ton cargo volume. Key risks include global trade disruptions from geopolitical turmoil and the ramp-up of the NQXT acquisition, though leverage remains controlled at 1.8x. The CFO transition is planned, with a successor to be announced next quarter.

Guidance read

FY2026 EBITDA guidance raised to INR 22,800 crore: Full-year EBITDA guidance increased by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, including one quarter of NQXT contribution (INR 300 crore EBITDA). FY2029 revenue target of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore: Management reiterated the five-year plan targets, with revenue of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore by FY2029. Vizhinjam Phase II expansion to add 4.1M TEUs capacity by FY2029: INR 16,000 crore capex for Vizhinjam Phase II, increasing total capacity to 5.7M TEUs, with cash flows spread from FY2026 to FY2030. Coal proportion expected to settle at 20-22% in five years: Management guided that coal's share of total cargo will decline to 20-22% over five years, driven by container and oil & gas growth.

Risk read

Key risks include Global trade disruption from geopolitical turmoil — CEO noted that a major conflict between countries impacting global trade could derail the FY2029 targets, though minor events like Red Sea disruptions have negligible impact.; Gopalpur port margin decline and turnaround uncertainty — Gopalpur reported negative EBITDA this quarter due to fixed costs and volume decline. Management acknowledged a turnaround program but provided no specific timeline.; NQXT contract renegotiation timing and margin trajectory — Analyst raised concerns about NQXT contract renegotiations; management indicated major volume renegotiations only in FY2029, with margins remaining around 65-70%.; Coal volume decline from thermal coal import slowdown — Thermal coal imports declined 2.7% all-India, impacting Mundra volumes. Management expects coal proportion to fall to 20-22% but faces structural demand risk..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

IndiGrid reported a solid Q3 FY26 with revenue of ₹862.2 crore (+11.7% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹784.3 crore (+13% YoY), driven by acquisitions completed in Q1 FY26 (Renew assets worth ~₹2,200 crore). PAT was muted at ₹328 crore due to working capital changes. The company maintained a DPU of ₹4, in line with the annual guidance of ₹16. Operational metrics remained strong: transmission availability at 99.77% and solar CUF at 21.6%. Management highlighted a robust pipeline of ₹7,500 crore under construction (via InnerGrid), with two new definitive agreements signed for battery and transmission projects worth ~₹2,600 crore. The QIP raised ₹1,500 crore, reducing net debt/AUM to 56.5%. Key risk: execution delays in the under-construction pipeline or adverse interest rate movements could impact DPU accretion.

Guidance read

DPU guidance of ₹16 for FY26: Management reaffirmed the annual distribution per unit target of ₹16, supported by disciplined capital deployment. AUM growth to ~₹40,000 crore: With the ₹7,500 crore under-construction pipeline (via InnerGrid), AUM is expected to grow from current ₹32,800 crore to ~₹40,000 crore over the next 2-3 years. Net debt/AUM target of 56.5% post-QIP: After the ₹1,500 crore QIP, leverage ratio improved to 56.5%, providing headroom for future acquisitions.

Risk read

Key risks include Interest rate risk on locked-in acquisition values — Management fixed the acquisition value for the Techno Electric asset well in advance; if interest rates rise, the deal could become less accretive.; Execution risk in under-construction pipeline — The ₹7,500 crore pipeline includes projects under construction by InnerGrid; delays or cost overruns could impact the timing and accretion of acquisitions.; Grid connectivity delays for new projects — Management acknowledged that transmission capacity buildout lags behind generation PPAs, which could slow down new project additions..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.