Adaniports vs HG Infra Engineering Q3 FY26

Adani Ports delivered a strong Q3 FY26, with all four business pillars achieving high double-digit growth. Domestic ports reached a record 40.6% container market share for nine months, while international ports generated INR 1,000 crore quarterly revenue. Logistics revenue surged 62% YoY to INR 1,121 crore. The company raised its full-year EBITDA guidance by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, driven by operational excellence and financial discipline. Management reiterated its FY2029 target of INR 65,500 crore revenue and INR 36,500 crore EBITDA, with a clear path to 1 billion ton cargo volume. Key risks include global trade disruptions from geopolitical turmoil and the ramp-up of the NQXT acquisition, though leverage remains controlled at 1.8x. The CFO transition is planned, with a successor to be announced next quarter.

Guidance read

FY2026 EBITDA guidance raised to INR 22,800 crore: Full-year EBITDA guidance increased by INR 800 crore to INR 22,800 crore, including one quarter of NQXT contribution (INR 300 crore EBITDA). FY2029 revenue target of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore: Management reiterated the five-year plan targets, with revenue of INR 65,500 crore and EBITDA of INR 36,500 crore by FY2029. Vizhinjam Phase II expansion to add 4.1M TEUs capacity by FY2029: INR 16,000 crore capex for Vizhinjam Phase II, increasing total capacity to 5.7M TEUs, with cash flows spread from FY2026 to FY2030. Coal proportion expected to settle at 20-22% in five years: Management guided that coal's share of total cargo will decline to 20-22% over five years, driven by container and oil & gas growth.

Risk read

Key risks include Global trade disruption from geopolitical turmoil — CEO noted that a major conflict between countries impacting global trade could derail the FY2029 targets, though minor events like Red Sea disruptions have negligible impact.; Gopalpur port margin decline and turnaround uncertainty — Gopalpur reported negative EBITDA this quarter due to fixed costs and volume decline. Management acknowledged a turnaround program but provided no specific timeline.; NQXT contract renegotiation timing and margin trajectory — Analyst raised concerns about NQXT contract renegotiations; management indicated major volume renegotiations only in FY2029, with margins remaining around 65-70%.; Coal volume decline from thermal coal import slowdown — Thermal coal imports declined 2.7% all-India, impacting Mundra volumes. Management expects coal proportion to fall to 20-22% but faces structural demand risk..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

HG Infra reported Q3 FY26 standalone revenue of ₹1,450 crore with EBITDA margin of 15.5%, while PAT declined to ₹97 crore (6.7% margin) due to higher tax provisions. The order book stands at ₹13,624 crore, with roads contributing 64%, railways 20%, and renewables 15%. Execution was impacted by prolonged monsoon and delayed appointed dates for key projects like Varanasi-Kolkata Package 10. Management expects Q4 revenue of ~₹2,000 crore and FY27 revenue of ~₹7,000 crore, driven by existing orders and new project wins. Order inflow target for FY27 is ₹10,000-12,000 crore. Risks include margin compression from competitive bidding, delays in HAM asset monetization, and the ongoing CBI investigation which management declined to elaborate on.

Guidance read

Q4 FY26 revenue guidance of ~₹2,000 crore: Management expects standalone revenue of around ₹2,000 crore in Q4 FY26, driven by execution catch-up. FY27 revenue guidance of ~₹7,000 crore: Revenue target for FY27 is approximately ₹7,000 crore, with ₹5,500 crore from existing projects and ₹1,500 crore from new projects like MSRDC. FY27 order inflow target of ₹10,000-12,000 crore: Management targets order inflows of ₹10,000-12,000 crore in FY27, including roads, railways, and BESS projects. EBITDA margin guidance of ~14-15% for new projects: Margins on new bids are expected to be around 14-15%, down from historical 15-16%, due to competitive pressure.

Risk read

Key risks include CBI investigation impact — CBI searched company offices in January 2026; management provided no details beyond stock exchange disclosures, creating uncertainty.; Delay in HAM asset monetization — Monetization of 5 HAM assets is pending lender NOCs; only 3 of 5 SPVs expected to close in FY26, delaying cash inflows.; Margin compression from competitive bidding — Management acknowledged that new project margins may fall to ~14% from historical 15-16% due to market correction.; Execution risk from delayed appointed dates — Key projects like Varanasi-Kolkata Package 10 and Nagpur EPC orders face delays, impacting revenue visibility..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.