Tata Steel Management Guidance Tracker

Net realizations in India expected to drop by about ₹3,100 per ton quarter-on-quarter due to falling international prices and seasonality.

Net realizations in Europe expected to drop by about GBP 38 per ton quarter-on-quarter.

Management guided a sequential improvement of INR 2,200 per ton in India net realizations in Q3 FY24, aided by resilient domestic demand.

Management guided for a sequential decline in net realizations in India for Q4 FY24.

Net realizations in India are expected to be about INR 1,500 per ton lower in Q2 compared to Q1, due to soft steel prices.

Netherlands net realizations are projected to be GBP 60 per ton lower in Q2 compared to Q1, reflecting market weakness.

Net realizations in India are expected to decline by about INR 2,000 per ton in Q3 compared to Q2, due to lower July prices and auto contract adjustments.

Management expects India net sales realizations to be flat quarter-on-quarter in Q4 FY25, barring any immediate safeguard duty changes.

Management expects Indian steel realizations to increase by about INR 3,000 per ton in the first quarter of FY26 compared to Q4 FY25.

Management guided that net realizations in India will decline by about INR 2,000 per ton sequentially in Q2 FY26 due to seasonal weakness and supply pressures.

Management expects net realizations in India to drop by about INR 1,500 per ton in Q3 compared to Q2, assuming no major price increase in December.

Positive impact from EU protectionist measures expected from Q4 onwards, with better price discussions for annual contracts.

Management guided a sequential increase in India steel realizations of about ₹2,300 per ton in Q4 FY26, driven by spot price recovery and better mix.

Management expects Netherlands business to be EBITDA positive in the second half of FY24, with full-year positive EBITDA.

After blast furnace relining completion in Q3, Netherlands is expected to turn EBITDA positive in Q4 FY24.

Coking coal cost on consumption basis expected to increase by about $10 per ton in Q4.

Management expects Netherlands operations to turn EBITDA positive next financial year.

UK operations expected to be cash neutral in the second half of FY25, with full-year EBITDA positive in FY26.

Management expects UK operations to reach close to breakeven or slightly positive EBITDA from Q3 FY25, after closure of second blast furnace in September.

Management targets achieving neutral to positive EBITDA in the UK by June 2025, driven by fixed cost reductions of GBP 100 per ton.

Tata Steel UK targets breakeven in the first two quarters of FY26, with a focus on achieving it by June 2025.

Company targets structural cost takeouts of approximately INR 11,500 crore across geographies in FY26, including INR 4,000 crore in India, EUR 500 million in Netherlands, and GBP 220 million in U.K.

Coking coal consumption costs are expected to decline by about $10 per ton across geographies in Q2 FY26.

Management stated that achieving EBITDA break-even in UK by Q4 is difficult without policy intervention on import quotas.

Despite a ~€33/ton QoQ realization decline from mix effects, cost takeouts are expected to more than offset, leading to EBITDA expansion in Q4.

Management aims to bring net debt/EBITDA back to 2.5x by end of FY24, from 2.9x in Q1.

Management targets net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2.5x by end of FY25, assuming market conditions remain at cycle bottom.

The company aims to reduce net debt by INR 60-80 billion during FY26, though capex priorities may influence timing.

Management aims to run the UK business in transition such that it is cash neutral or cash positive, excluding one-time restructuring costs.

Management expects to significantly reduce UK losses next year, targeting a 50% reduction.

Consolidated volume guidance of 1.4 million tons increase, driven by Kalinganagar expansion (1.7 million tons) offset by Jamshedpur BF reline.

Full-year incremental volume from Kalinganagar expansion is guided at 1.4 million tons, as G Blast Furnace relining in Q4 offsets some gains.

The new blast furnace at Kalinganagar is expected to ramp up to 15,000 tons per day by the fourth quarter of FY25.

Additional deliveries of roughly 1.5 million tons expected in FY26, primarily from India, with Kalinganagar ramping up and Ludhiana EAF commissioning by year-end.

Management reiterated the goal of achieving EBITDA breakeven in the UK business by the fourth quarter of FY26, subject to market conditions and cost actions.

India volumes are expected to be higher by about 500,000 tons in Q3 due to Kalinganagar ramp-up.

India volumes are expected to increase by about 500,000 tons in Q4 compared to Q3, aided by no blast furnace relinings and new Ludhiana plant startup.

UK EBITDA is expected to see a slight improvement in Q4, but turning positive requires UK government safeguard measures and a ~£100/ton spread expansion.

Tata Steel plans to reach 40 million tons of India capacity by 2030 through expansions at Kalinganagar, Neelachal, Bhushan, and EAF projects.

Total capex guidance of INR 16,000 crore, with 75% allocated to India for Kalinganagar expansion and downstream projects.

Capital expenditure in FY26 is expected to decline substantially as Kalinganagar Phase 2 completes, with no major new projects starting.

The remaining INR 2,000 crore capex for Kalinganagar Phase 2 will be spent over the next year, with full benefits expected by September 2026.

Capital expenditure planned at about INR 15,000 crore, with ~75% allocated to India projects including Kalinganagar completion and Ludhiana EAF.

A multi-year transformation program in the Netherlands targets EUR 200 million in cost savings, with benefits starting from Q1 FY26.