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RELIANCE Conglomerate 19 Jul 2024

Reliance Industries Ltd — Q1 FY25

Reliance Industries reported a mixed Q1 FY25 with consolidated revenue of INR 258,000 crore (+11.5% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 42,748 crore (+2% YoY), as strong performance in consumer businesses (Jio and Retail) and upstream (Oil & Gas) offset a sharp decline...

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Revenue ₹2,31,784 Cr +11.5%
EBITDA ₹42,748 Cr +2%
PAT ₹17,445 Cr -4.5%
EBITDA Margin 17%
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✓ Verified against BSE filing

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Reliance Industries reported a mixed Q1 FY25 with consolidated revenue of INR 258,000 crore (+11.5% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 42,748 crore (+2% YoY), as strong performance in consumer businesses (Jio and Retail) and upstream (Oil & Gas) offset a sharp decline in O2C. PAT fell 4.5% to INR 17,500 crore due to weak refining margins. Jio added 8 million subscribers, with ARPU flat at INR 181.7, while Retail saw 8% revenue growth with margin expansion of 30 bps. O2C EBITDA dropped 14% YoY on lower gasoline and polymer cracks. Management highlighted tariff hike benefits from July and continued 5G adoption. Key risk: sustained weakness in global refining margins and geopolitical disruptions could pressure O2C earnings further.

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Quarter Snapshot

Jio Subscriber Base 489.7M
+8M QoQ

Net addition of 8 million subscribers in the quarter, reaching 489.7 million total.

Jio ARPU INR 181.7
Flat QoQ

ARPU remained flat sequentially due to promotional 5G offers; tariff hike post-quarter.

Retail Footfalls 296M
+19% YoY

Footfalls grew 19% year-on-year, driven by grocery and consumer electronics.

KG-D6 Gas Production 29 MMSCMD
+44% YoY

KG-D6 gas production rose 44% YoY to 29 million standard cubic meters per day.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q1 FY25 vs Q4 FY24
3 new guidance3 dropped3 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
Tariff hike benefits from July 2024

Jio implemented tariff increases of 13-25% from July 3, 2024, expected to improve ARPU and revenue in coming quarters.

NEW
CBM production ramp-up

40-well multilateral program to add 0.5 MMSCMD of gas by year-end, with 21 wells already completed.

NEW
Retail margin improvement focus

Streamlining operations and tech investments expected to sustain margin improvement; EBITDA margin up 30 bps YoY.

DROPPED
KG-D6 incremental production of 4-5 mmscmd in a few years

Incremental development plan approved by government to add 4-5 million standard cubic meters per day of production.

DROPPED
Capex to remain below cash profits

Management indicated capex intensity is lower and will be below cash profits, with net debt/EBITDA at 0.65x.

DROPPED
Jio 5G monetization runway

30% of data traffic on 5G is currently free; monetization offers a larger growth runway.

NEW RISK
O2C margin volatility

Global refining margins remain weak due to new capacity and muted demand; gasoline cracks down 30% YoY.

NEW RISK
Discretionary demand slowdown

Fashion and lifestyle segment saw tepid demand; analyst raised concern about consumer spending weakness.

NEW RISK
Geopolitical disruptions

Red Sea tensions and Middle East instability could impact freight and supply chains, affecting O2C margins.

RISK GONE
Sustained petrochemical margin weakness

Global petrochemical deltas are at multi-decade lows due to supply overhang, which could pressure O2C earnings.

RISK GONE
Geopolitical volatility impacting energy business

OPEC+ production cuts, Middle East tensions, and Russia-Ukraine conflict create uncertainty in oil prices and refining margins.

RISK GONE
5G monetization delay

Analyst question on when 5G services will be charged; management did not provide a timeline, only cited 'larger runway'.

🤫 Topics management stopped discussing

KG-D6 gas production target of 30 MMSCMD in FY24

Mentioned in Q1 FY24, Q2 FY24

KG-D6 gas production is on track to reach 30 million standard cubic meters per day, representing ~30% of India's gas output.

Retail margin expansion to continue via operating leverage

Mentioned in Q2 FY24, Q3 FY24

EBITDA margin improved 40 bps YoY to 8.1%; management expects further expansion as infrastructure investments pay off.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Tariff hike benefits from July 2024

Jio implemented tariff increases of 13-25% from July 3, 2024, expected to improve ARPU and revenue in coming quarters.

Top risk O2C margin volatility

Global refining margins remain weak due to new capacity and muted demand; gasoline cracks down 30% YoY.

View Risks →