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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation — Q4 FY24
ONGC reported a standalone PAT of ₹9,869 crore in Q4 FY24, a sharp increase from ₹528 crore in Q4 FY23, driven by a low base due to prior exceptional items and higher other income.
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ONGC reported a standalone PAT of ₹9,869 crore in Q4 FY24, a sharp increase from ₹528 crore in Q4 FY23, driven by a low base due to prior exceptional items and higher other income. Consolidated PAT rose 77.9% YoY to ₹11,527 crore. Crude oil production grew 4.3% YoY in Q4, while gas production declined 3%. Management guided for a production ramp-up from KG-98/2, targeting 45,000 bopd oil and 10 MMSCMD gas by Q4 FY25, and overall production growth of 20% by FY27. CapEx for FY25 is guided at ₹33,000-35,000 crore. Key risks include execution delays in KG-98/2 ramp-up and windfall tax policy uncertainty.
ONGC ने चौथी तिमाही (जनवरी-मार्च 2024) में ₹9,869 करोड़ का शुद्ध लाभ कमाया, जो पिछले साल की समान तिमाही के ₹528 करोड़ से काफी ज्यादा है। इसकी वजह पिछले साल के कुछ खास खर्चों का कम आधार और दूसरे स्रोतों से ज्यादा आय है। कुल मिलाकर लाभ पिछले साल से 77.9% बढ़कर ₹11,527 करोड़ हो गया। कच्चे तेल का उत्पादन 4.3% बढ़ा, लेकिन गैस का उत्पादन 3% घटा। कंपनी का लक्ष्य है कि KG-98/2 परियोजना से अगले साल मार्च तक रोज 45,000 बैरल तेल और 10 मिलियन घन मीटर गैस निकाले, और 2027 तक कुल उत्पादन 20% बढ़ाए। इस साल खर्च का अनुमान ₹33,000-35,000 करोड़ है। मुख्य जोखिम: परियोजना में देरी और सरकार के अप्रत्याशित कर बदलाव।
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KG-98/2 ramp-up execution risk
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Crude oil production growth (Q4 YoY)
4.3%
+4.3% YoY
Standalone crude oil production increased 4.3% in Q4 FY24 vs Q4 FY23, driven by new wells and interventions.
KG-98/2 oil production target (Q4 FY25)
45,000 bopd
+275% from current 12,000 bopd
Management expects oil production from KG-98/2 to ramp from 12,000 bopd to 45,000 bopd by Q4 FY25.
KG-98/2 gas production target (Q4 FY25)
10 MMSCMD
+317% from current 2.4 MMSCMD
Gas production from KG-98/2 is expected to reach 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25, up from 2.4 MMSCMD currently.
Total production target (FY27)
47 MMtoe
+20% vs FY24
ONGC targets 20% production growth to 47 MMtoe by FY27, with oil up 12% and gas up 27%.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
KG-98/2 ramp-up: oil to 45,000 bopd, gas to 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25
Oil production to increase from 12,000 bopd to 20,000-30,000 bopd in Q3 FY25 and 45,000 bopd in Q4 FY25. Gas to reach 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25.
NEW
Production target of 47 MMtoe by FY27
Overall production to increase 20% to 47 MMtoe by FY27, with oil at 21.87 MMtoe and gas at 25.5 BCF.
NEW
OPaL restructuring expected to improve profitability in 1-2 years
Management expects OPaL to turn around in 1-2 years after equity infusion, feedstock resolution, and SEZ exit.
UPDATED
CapEx guidance of ₹33,000-35,000 crore for FY25
Capital expenditure for FY25 expected in the range of ₹33,000-35,000 crore, excluding OPaL infusion.
DROPPED
Production growth of ~15% over next 3 years
Management expects total oil and gas production to increase by ~15% by FY26-27, driven by KG 98/2, Daman Upside, and other projects.
DROPPED
Gas price realization of $9-$10/MMBTU for incremental production
Incremental gas from new wells will fetch $9-$10/MMBTU under the premium pricing mechanism, improving realizations.
DROPPED
Dividend payout of ~40%
Management indicated continued dividend payout of around 40%, with INR 9.75 per share already paid in 9M FY24.
NEW RISK
KG-98/2 ramp-up execution risk
Ramp-up to 45,000 bopd and 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25 depends on weather and installation timelines; delays could push targets.
NEW RISK
Windfall tax policy uncertainty
Windfall tax at $75/bbl cap may not be revised despite rising OpEx; management is engaging with government but no assurance.
NEW RISK
OPaL losses persist despite restructuring
OPaL reported negative EBITDA in FY24; turnaround depends on regulatory approvals and market conditions, which are uncertain.
NEW RISK
Natural decline in mature fields
Gas production declined 3% in Q4 due to 7-8% natural decline in mature fields; mitigation depends on new projects.
RISK GONE
SAED applicability on KG 98/2 crude
Management is reviewing whether the windfall tax (SAED) applies to new KG production; if imposed, it could reduce realizations.
RISK GONE
Rising rig day rates
New jackup rig rates have risen to $70,000-$90,000/day from COVID lows, potentially increasing drilling costs.
RISK GONE
OVL dividend repatriation from Russia
Dividends from Russian operations remain stuck due to sanctions; management is pursuing a share swap to resolve.
RISK GONE
OpEx increase from one-off items
Nine-month OpEx rose 25% YoY partly due to one-off items (water injection, LD payments); if these recur, margins could be pressured.
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Guidance and risk preview
Oil production to increase from 12,000 bopd to 20,000-30,000 bopd in Q3 FY25 and 45,000 bopd in Q4 FY25.
Ramp-up to 45,000 bopd and 10 MMSCMD by Q4 FY25 depends on weather and installation timelines; delays could push targets.
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