Oil & Natural Gas Corporation vs Reliance Q3 FY26

ON

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

Q3 FY26 · Diversified

ONGC reported a strong Q3 FY26 with consolidated PAT of INR 11,946 crore, up 23% YoY, driven by higher gas revenue and lower statutory levies despite a decline in crude oil prices to $61.63/bbl. Standalone PAT rose 1.6% to INR 8,372 crore. Key operational highlights include the near-completion of the KG-DWN-98/2 project, with first gas expected in Q1 FY27 and ramp-up to 5-6 MMSCMD by year-end. The Daman Upside project is on track for first gas in March 2026, adding 4-5 MMSCMD. The BP TSP contract has already shown positive results in Mumbai High, arresting decline. Management guided for FY27 production of 42.5 million tonnes (oil & gas equivalent) and CapEx of INR 32,000-33,000 crore. A second interim dividend of INR 6.25/share was declared, bringing cumulative interim dividends to a record INR 15,411 crore. Risk: Sustained low crude prices could pressure upstream margins and delay project economics.

Guidance read

FY27 production target of 42.5 million tonnes (oil & gas equivalent): Management guided for standalone production of 42.5 million tonnes in FY27, comprising ~21 million tonnes of oil and ~21.5 million tonnes of gas equivalent. CapEx guidance of INR 32,000-33,000 crore for FY27: ONGC plans to maintain CapEx in the range of INR 32,000-33,000 crore for FY27, focused on exploration and production. Cost reduction target of INR 1,000 crore: Through various efficiency measures, ONGC targets reducing costs by INR 1,000 crore in FY27. New Well Gas share to increase to 24% in FY27: Management expects the share of New Well Gas in total gas production to rise from 18% to 24% in FY27.

Risk read

Key risks include Crude oil price volatility — Crude oil prices declined to $61.63/bbl in Q3 FY26 from $72.5/bbl a year ago, impacting revenue. Sustained low prices could pressure upstream margins.; KG-DWN-98/2 project execution delays — The project has faced delays in module installation; any further delays in hook-up and commissioning could push back first gas and ramp-up timelines.; GST increase on oil services — The budget raised GST on oil services from 12% to 18% with no input tax credit, increasing operating costs. Management indicated no relief under ORD Amendment.; OPaL debt and profitability — OPaL carries net debt of INR 23,000-24,000 crore. While EBITDA is positive, turning net profitable depends on petrochemical prices, which remain volatile..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

RE

Reliance

Q3 FY26 · Conglomerate

Reliance Industries reported a solid Q3 FY26 with consolidated revenue up 10% YoY and EBITDA up 6%, driven by strong O2C performance (15% EBITDA growth) and digital services (16% EBITDA growth). PAT grew 1.6% to ₹22,290 crore, muted by higher depreciation from 5G asset capitalization. Jio added 8.9 million subscribers, reaching 515 million, with ARPU improving organically to ₹213.7. Retail revenue grew 8.1% to ₹97,600 crore, with quick commerce scaling to 1.6 million orders (360% YoY). New energy manufacturing is on track for 10 GW integrated solar capacity, with first generation expected in 12-15 months. Management remains constructive on retail despite short-term volatility and sees continued cash generation from diversified businesses. Key risk: sustained weakness in petrochemical margins and global oversupply could pressure O2C earnings.

Guidance read

New energy solar manufacturing to commission 10 GW integrated capacity this year: First phase of 10 GW peak annual solar manufacturing (ingot, wafer, cell, module) to be fully commissioned and ramped up during the current year, with expansion to 20 GW underway. First renewable generation capacity to come online in 12-15 months: Kutch solar generation (round-the-clock power) will start delivering electricity within 12-15 months, with annual installation of 20 GW peak solar. Jio IPO imminent, awaiting final government notification: Jio Platforms IPO is being worked on internally; final details depend on government notification expected in next few months.

Risk read

Key risks include Petrochemical margin weakness persists — Global ethylene oversupply and low operating rates (~80%) continue to pressure naphtha-based cracker margins, though Reliance's ethane advantage mitigates impact.; Retail growth volatility from seasonality and demerger — Q3 retail revenue growth was impacted by festival shift, GST rationalization, and RCPL demerger; underlying double-digit growth may take time to normalize.; New energy project execution and cost overruns — Large-scale integrated solar and battery manufacturing involves complex construction; any delays or cost overruns could impact returns.; China's silver export restrictions could affect solar cell costs — China restricted silver exports; though management downplays impact due to HJT technology and diversification, silver is a key input for solar cells..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.