Ongc vs Maruti Q4 FY25

ONGC's Q4 FY25 standalone PAT declined 12.1% YoY to INR 35,610 crore, primarily due to a INR 4,257 crore increase in exploration write-offs. Revenue was flat at INR 137,361 crore. Crude oil production rose 0.9% to 18.558 MMT, while gas production fell 1.6% to 19.654 BCM. Management highlighted a record 578 wells drilled and INR 62,000 crore CapEx, the highest ever. Key growth drivers include the KG 98/2 field (oil at 33-34 kbpd, targeting 45 kbpd), new well gas pricing adding INR 700 crore in FY25, and OPaL's turnaround post-SEZ denotification. Guidance points to standalone crude production of ~21.5 MMT and gas of ~21 BCM in FY26, with 5 MSCMD incremental gas from DUDP by Q4 FY26. Risks include continued dry well write-offs and delayed KG 98/2 gas ramp-up due to living quarters installation.

Guidance read

Standalone crude oil production target of ~21.5 MMT for FY26: Management expects crude production to rise to 21.5 million metric tons in FY26, driven by TSP initiatives and new wells. Standalone gas production target of ~21 BCM for FY26: Gas production expected to reach 21 BCM in FY26, with 5 MSCMD incremental from DUDP by Q4 FY26. CapEx guidance of INR 30,000-35,000 crore for FY26: Total CapEx including E&P and renewables expected to be INR 30,000-35,000 crore, lower than FY25 due to falling service costs. New well gas to add INR 1,500-2,000 crore revenue in FY26: Revenue from new well gas pricing expected to double from INR 700 crore in FY25 to INR 1,500-2,000 crore in FY26.

Risk read

Key risks include Dry well write-offs may persist — Exploration write-offs surged to INR 4,257 crore in FY25; management noted unpredictability in dry well incidence, which could pressure earnings.; KG 98/2 gas ramp-up delayed by living quarters installation — Gas production currently at 2.75 MSCMD; target of 6-7 MSCMD hinges on installing a living quarters platform, delayed due to weather.; OPaL ethane sourcing timeline uncertainty — OPaL's ethane import from US is targeted for 2028; any delay could prolong reliance on costlier naphtha (60% of feedstock)..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 1 close, 1 missed.

Maruti Suzuki reported Q4 FY25 net sales of ₹38,800 crore (+5.7% YoY) and net profit of ₹3,710 crore (-4.1% YoY), impacted by higher other expenses, new plant overheads, and adverse mix. Volumes hit a record 604,635 units (+3.5% YoY), driven by exports (+8.1%) and calibrated wholesale dispatches. EBITDA margin contracted due to 90 bps lumpy expenses, 40 bps adverse mix, and 30 bps from Kharkhoda plant ramp-up, partly offset by lower sales promotion and operating leverage. Management guided for ~20% export growth in FY26 and two new SUV launches, including the e Vitara EV. Domestic industry growth is expected at a modest 1-2%. Key risk: sustained pressure on entry-level demand and potential steel price hikes post-safeguard duty.

Guidance read

Export growth of ~20% in FY26: Management expects exports to grow by at least 20% in FY26, building on the 17.5% growth in FY25. Domestic industry growth of 1-2% in FY26: Maruti forecasts a modest 1-2% growth for the domestic PV industry in FY26, with the company aiming to outperform. Two new model launches in FY26: Plans to launch the e Vitara EV and another SUV in FY26, with e Vitara sales starting in H1. Capex guidance of ₹8,000-9,000 crore for FY26: Capital expenditure for FY26 is expected to be in the range of ₹8,000-9,000 crore, including SMG.

Risk read

Key risks include Steel price inflation post-safeguard duty — Management flagged that domestic steel producers may use the safeguard duty to raise prices, impacting margins.; Sustained weakness in entry-level demand — Chairman noted 88% of the country is not participating in car growth, with entry-level segment shrinking.; EV profitability overhang — Management acknowledged EVs will have much lower profitability than ICE vehicles, potentially dragging overall margins.; New plant ramp-up costs — Kharkhoda plant contributed 30 bps margin headwind in Q4; full benefit of scale will take time..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.