Maruti vs Bajajfinsv Q4 FY25

Maruti Suzuki reported Q4 FY25 net sales of ₹38,800 crore (+5.7% YoY) and net profit of ₹3,710 crore (-4.1% YoY), impacted by higher other expenses, new plant overheads, and adverse mix. Volumes hit a record 604,635 units (+3.5% YoY), driven by exports (+8.1%) and calibrated wholesale dispatches. EBITDA margin contracted due to 90 bps lumpy expenses, 40 bps adverse mix, and 30 bps from Kharkhoda plant ramp-up, partly offset by lower sales promotion and operating leverage. Management guided for ~20% export growth in FY26 and two new SUV launches, including the e Vitara EV. Domestic industry growth is expected at a modest 1-2%. Key risk: sustained pressure on entry-level demand and potential steel price hikes post-safeguard duty.

Guidance read

Export growth of ~20% in FY26: Management expects exports to grow by at least 20% in FY26, building on the 17.5% growth in FY25. Domestic industry growth of 1-2% in FY26: Maruti forecasts a modest 1-2% growth for the domestic PV industry in FY26, with the company aiming to outperform. Two new model launches in FY26: Plans to launch the e Vitara EV and another SUV in FY26, with e Vitara sales starting in H1. Capex guidance of ₹8,000-9,000 crore for FY26: Capital expenditure for FY26 is expected to be in the range of ₹8,000-9,000 crore, including SMG.

Risk read

Key risks include Steel price inflation post-safeguard duty — Management flagged that domestic steel producers may use the safeguard duty to raise prices, impacting margins.; Sustained weakness in entry-level demand — Chairman noted 88% of the country is not participating in car growth, with entry-level segment shrinking.; EV profitability overhang — Management acknowledged EVs will have much lower profitability than ICE vehicles, potentially dragging overall margins.; New plant ramp-up costs — Kharkhoda plant contributed 30 bps margin headwind in Q4; full benefit of scale will take time..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.

Bajaj Finserv reported a steady Q4 FY25 with consolidated total income up 14% YoY to INR 36,596 crore and PAT up 14% to INR 2,417 crore. The general insurance arm BAGIC saw GWP decline 13% due to accounting changes and volatile crop/government health business, but core retail and commercial lines grew 8-12%, outpacing the industry. Life insurance arm BALIC delivered a strong VNB margin expansion to 22.1% (up ~400bps YoY) driven by product mix shift and cost actions, though PAT fell 61% on lower realized gains. Bajaj Finance continued robust performance with AUM growth of 26% and stable asset quality. Management expressed cautious optimism for H2 FY26, focusing on profitable growth and cost efficiencies. Key risks include regulatory changes, competitive pressure in insurance, and potential market volatility impacting investment gains.

Guidance read

BALIC VNB margin trajectory to steepen: Management expects VNB margin expansion to accelerate, with benefits from cost actions and product mix fully playing out by FY27, but visible from H2 FY26. BALIC top-line growth to pick up from H2 FY26: After a muted H1 due to high base and agency channel reset, growth is expected to recover in the second half of FY26. BAGIC to continue calibrated growth with underwriting focus: Management aims to maintain profitable growth, prioritizing underwriting performance over market share in tender-driven businesses. Platform businesses to scale transactions: Bajaj Finserv Health and Bajaj Markets are expected to increase transaction volumes and achieve greater scale, with health targeting international expansion.

Risk read

Key risks include Regulatory changes impacting insurance accounting — The 1/n regulation for long-term products distorted GWP and combined ratio comparability, and further regulatory shifts could affect reported metrics.; Concentration risk in bancassurance — BALIC's largest bancassurance partner (Axis Bank) contributes 22% of business; the partner's acquisition of a competing insurer could pressure margins or market share.; Market volatility impacting investment gains — Lower realized gains in Q4 due to market conditions dragged PAT for both insurance subsidiaries; continued volatility could affect profitability.; Competitive pressure in tender-driven insurance lines — Aggressive pricing in crop and government health segments led BAGIC to reduce participation, risking market share loss in these lines..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.