Maruti vs Bajaj Finserv Q4 FY26

Maruti Suzuki reported a record Q4 FY26 with 676,209 units sold (+11.8% YoY) and net sales of ₹50,100 crore (+28.8% YoY). Operating profit (EBIT) hit an all-time high of ₹4,400 crore (+30.4% YoY), but PAT fell 6.9% to ₹3,600 crore due to a ₹750 crore mark-to-market hit on bond yields. The GST cut in small cars drove a sharp demand recovery, with first-time buyers rising to 51% of sales. Management guided for ~10% domestic volume growth in FY27, supported by 500,000 units of new capacity (Kharkhoda Phase II and Hansalpur Line 4). Key risks include commodity cost headwinds (~80 bps in Q4) and geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia. The company remains confident in margin recovery once temporary pressures subside.

Guidance read

Domestic volume growth of ~10% in FY27: Management expects Maruti's domestic sales to grow by about 10% year-on-year in FY27, driven by new capacity and strong demand. Additional 500,000 units annual capacity in FY27: Kharkhoda Phase II (commissioned April 2026) and Hansalpur Line 4 (operational within FY27) each add 250,000 units, totaling 500,000 units of new capacity. CapEx of ₹14,000 crore for FY27: Capital expenditure for FY27 is planned at ₹14,000 crore, primarily for the two new plants. Target to enable 1 lakh charging points by 2030: Maruti aims to facilitate a network of over 100,000 charging points across India by 2030, in partnership with dealers and charge point operators.

Risk read

Key risks include Commodity and energy cost headwinds — Q4 saw 80 bps margin impact from adverse commodity prices; West Asia tensions could sustain or worsen cost pressures.; Mark-to-market volatility on investment surplus — Bond yield hardening caused a ₹750 crore MTM hit in Q4; further interest rate moves could impact other income.; Geopolitical disruption to supply chains — West Asia conflict and rare earth supply issues pose risks to energy, raw materials, and logistics, potentially affecting production continuity.; Uncertainty in export demand due to global macro — Management declined to give export guidance, citing unpredictable war impact; exports could face headwinds if global demand weakens..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Bajaj Finserv's Q4 FY26 consolidated results were impacted by temporary MTM losses from insurance investments, with reported revenue growth of 6% to ₹3,858 crore and PAT growth of 5% to ₹2,539 crore. Excluding MTM, revenue grew 14% and PAT 24%. General insurance saw muted GWP growth due to tactical reduction in crop and motor amid pricing pressure, with combined ratio elevated at 113.6%. Life insurance showed strong VNB growth of 29% to ₹709 crore and NBM expansion to 24.5%, driven by protection and group business. Lending subsidiaries Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Housing Finance delivered robust AUM growth of 22% and 23% respectively. Emerging businesses like Bajaj Finserv Health grew revenue 41%, while Bajaj Markets saw planned degrowth due to platform migration. Management guided for improved growth in life insurance and break-even for Bajaj Markets by end of FY27. Key risk: persistency dips in life insurance and elevated claims in government health business could pressure profitability.

Guidance read

Life insurance VNB margin trajectory positive: Management expects continued margin expansion driven by product mix shift towards term and protection, with term aspirational target of 10%+ of mix. Bajaj Markets break-even by end of FY27: The marketplace business aims to achieve break-even by the end of the current fiscal year, with revenues recovering post-platform migration. Bajaj Finserv Health break-even in ~24 months: The health business expects to reach operating break-even in about two years, based on current growth trajectory of 40-50%. AMC break-even at ~₹1 lakh crore AUM: The asset management company expects to break even when AUM reaches approximately ₹1 lakh crore, with current equity mix at 59%.

Risk read

Key risks include Persistency dips in life insurance — Persistency ratios declined across certain cohorts, in line with industry trends, which could impact future VNB if not reversed.; Elevated claims in government health business — Underwriting losses widened due to higher claims from government health schemes, though management considers it a timing variance.; Competitive intensity in motor and group health — Analyst raised concern about pricing pressure; management acknowledged but said they will reduce exposure where pricing is inadequate.; Regulatory uncertainty on IFRS 17 transition — Management cited lack of clarity on IFRS 17 assumptions and tax implications, leading to forbearance request; could cause reporting volatility..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.