Keystone Realtors vs JSW Infrastructure Q4 FY26

Keystone Realtors delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with pre-sales of ₹1,346 crore, up 58% YoY, and full-year pre-sales of ₹4,022 crore (+33% YoY), meeting guidance. The company achieved its highest-ever quarterly pre-sales, driven by strong demand in premium and emerging premium segments. Collections rose 13% to ₹2,622 crore, and operational cash flow stood at ₹715 crore. Management guided for FY27 pre-sales of ₹5,000 crore and reiterated the FY30 target of ₹10,000 crore, supported by a robust pipeline of cluster redevelopments and commercial annuity assets. The transition to percentage-of-completion accounting will better reflect margins. A key risk is potential input cost inflation (8-13% on certain items) due to global commodity volatility, though the company's pricing strategy provides some insulation.

Guidance read

FY27 pre-sales target of ₹5,000 crore: Management guided for pre-sales of ₹5,000 crore in FY27, representing ~25% growth over FY26. FY30 pre-sales target of ₹10,000 crore: Long-term target to achieve ₹10,000 crore pre-sales by FY30, implying a CAGR of ~26% from FY27. FY27 project launches of ₹8,000 crore GDV: Management expects to launch projects with an estimated GDV of ₹8,000 crore in FY27. FY27 business development of ₹8,000+ crore GDV: Target to acquire projects with GDV of ₹8,000 crore or more in FY27.

Risk read

Key risks include Input cost inflation — Commodity price volatility (steel, aluminium, glass) could increase construction costs by ~5% overall, with certain items up 8-13%.; Legacy project margin drag — Legacy low-margin projects (e.g., Crown) still contribute 62% of revenue in FY26; full transition to high-margin projects expected only by FY28.; Geopolitical risk impacting demand — Middle East crisis could slow footfalls and conversions, especially in the 1-3 crore segment, though premium demand remains resilient..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

JSW Infrastructure delivered a resilient Q4 FY26 with consolidated revenue of ₹1,522 crore (+19% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹769 crore (+20% YoY), despite a ~₹30 crore EBITDA hit from Middle East disruptions at its Fujairah terminal. Port segment revenue grew 12% YoY to ₹1,295 crore, driven by price hikes at Goa/Mangalore and ancillary services. Logistics EBITDA surged 14x to ₹118 crore for the full year, aided by Navkar's capacity utilization rising to 60% and the acquisition of 25 rakes. Management maintained FY27 EBITDA guidance of ₹3,000 crore and FY28 target of ₹5,000 crore, underpinned by brownfield expansions and the SMPA Kolkata terminal commencing interim operations. Key risks include further escalation in Middle East tensions delaying Fujairah recovery and potential environmental compliance costs at Dharamtar.

Guidance read

FY27 Consolidated EBITDA Guidance of ₹3,000 crore: Management reaffirmed FY27 EBITDA target of ₹3,000 crore, implying 15% growth over FY26 base of ₹2,604 crore. FY28 Consolidated EBITDA Target of ₹5,000 crore: EBITDA expected to nearly double from FY26 to ₹5,000 crore by FY28, driven by port capacity additions and logistics ramp-up. Logistics EBITDA Guidance of ₹400 crore in FY27 and ₹700 crore in FY28: Logistics segment EBITDA targets maintained at ₹400 crore for FY27 and ₹700 crore for FY28, with Navkar contributing ~₹200 crore. Capex Plan of ₹16,500 crore for FY27-28: Company plans to invest ~₹16,500 crore over FY27-28, with ₹13,000 crore for ports and ₹3,500 crore for logistics.

Risk read

Key risks include Middle East Geopolitical Disruption at Fujairah — Damage to three storage tanks at the Fujairah terminal due to regional conflict; operations expected to normalize progressively but timing uncertain.; Environmental Compliance at Dharamtar Port — Analyst raised concerns about an environmental committee report on dust spillover affecting mangroves; management confirmed compliance but risk of regulatory action remains.; Insurance Claim Uncertainty for Fujairah — Company has filed insurance claim for asset damage and loss of profit, but management noted the region is seeing such events for the first time, leading to a ₹68 crore provision.; Volume Deferment Due to Vessel Availability — Lower vessel availability and higher freight costs led to cargo deferments at Indian operations, impacting Q4 volumes..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.