JSW Steel vs Shyam Metalics Q4 FY26

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JSW Steel

Q4 FY26 · Manufacturing

JSW Steel reported a strong Q4 FY26 with consolidated revenue crossing ₹51,100 crore for the first time, adjusted EBITDA of ₹9,713 crore (19% margin), and normalized PAT of ₹3,475 crore (excluding exceptional gain of ₹17,888 crore from BPSL JV). The quarter was driven by record steel sales of ~8 million tons, 96% capacity utilization (ex-BF shutdown), and improved product mix. Management guided FY27 consolidated production of 29.75 million tons (+13% YoY) and sales of 28.6 million tons (+10% YoY), supported by domestic demand growth of 7-9%. Key risks include higher coking coal costs ($12-15/ton QoQ), Middle East conflict impacting gas/LPG supply, and potential safeguard duty withdrawal. The company announced a capex plan of ₹126,000 crore over 4-5 years to reach 62 million tons standalone capacity by FY32.

Guidance read

FY27 consolidated production target of 29.75 million tons: Management guided production of 29.75 million tons for FY27, representing ~13% growth on a like-for-like basis (excluding BPSL). FY27 sales volume guidance of 28.6 million tons: Sales volume expected at 28.6 million tons, implying ~10% growth YoY, including BMM Ispat acquisition. Capex of ₹22,000-24,000 crore in FY27: Part of the ₹126,000 crore growth capex plan to be spent over 4-5 years; FY27 spend guided at ₹22,000-24,000 crore. Target of 62 million tons standalone capacity by FY32: JSW Steel aims to expand standalone capacity to 62 million tons by FY32, with additional 16 million tons via JVs (JF Steel and POSCO).

Risk read

Key risks include Coking coal cost inflation — Management expects coking coal costs to rise by $12-15/ton in Q1 FY27, impacting margins.; Middle East conflict impact on gas/LPG supply — Analyst raised concern about gas shortages; management acknowledged limited exposure (5-6% of production) but noted cost impact and potential disruption if conflict escalates.; Potential withdrawal of safeguard duty — Analyst questioned risk of protection removal; management argued current duties are moderate and prices are aligned with international levels, but did not fully address the risk.; Execution risk on multiple large expansions — Simultaneous projects at Dolvi, Vijayanagar, Utkal, and JVs could strain execution and capital allocation..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Shyam Metalics delivered a record Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹5,240 Cr (+27% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹756 Cr (+33% YoY), driven by 26% volume growth to 4.94 MT and a favorable product mix shift toward value-added segments like CR coils and stainless steel. EBITDA margin expanded 60 bps YoY to 14.4%, aided by cost discipline and improved realizations. The board approved a new ₹2,700 Cr capex for a specialty wire mill and stainless steel downstream expansion, targeting commissioning by March 2029. Management guided for ~30% EBITDA growth in FY27, supported by ramp-up of CRM Phase 2, aluminium foil, and sponge iron capacity. Key risk: global steel price volatility and geopolitical disruptions could pressure realizations.

Guidance read

~30% EBITDA growth in FY27: Management expects EBITDA to grow ~30% YoY in FY27, driven by volume growth from new capacities and cost efficiencies. CRM EBITDA per ton of ₹10,000-11,000 in FY27: The CRM complex is expected to contribute EBITDA of ₹10,000-11,000 per ton in FY27. Aluminium EBITDA per ton of ₹35,000-40,000 in FY27: Aluminium segment EBITDA per ton is expected to be in the range of ₹35,000-40,000 in FY27. Capex of ₹2,900 Cr in FY27: The company plans to incur ₹2,900 Cr of capex in FY27 as part of the ₹10,000 Cr total capex program.

Risk read

Key risks include Global steel price volatility — Geopolitical tensions and trade actions could lead to price pressure and volatility in steel markets, impacting realizations.; Nickel sourcing challenges — Nickel prices have risen ~20% due to Indonesia supply cuts, posing cost risks for stainless steel production, though 75% of portfolio is low-nickel.; ED case on coal allocation — An ongoing ED investigation related to coal allocation could lead to legal or reputational risks, though management downplays it.; Pollution control board non-compliance — Central Pollution Control Board identified non-compliance issues; management expects resolution within 3 months..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.