Jindal Stainless vs Shyam Metalics Q4 FY26

JI

Jindal Stainless

Q4 FY26 · Diversified

Jindal Stainless delivered a resilient Q4 FY26 with consolidated EBITDA of ₹1,455 crore (+37% YoY) and PAT of ₹824 crore (+41% YoY), despite geopolitical headwinds impacting fuel costs. Full-year sales volume grew 8% YoY to 2.57 million tons, driven by strong domestic demand from automotive, metro, and white goods. Management guided FY27 volume growth of 7-9% and H1 EBITDA per ton of ₹18,000-20,000, factoring in elevated energy costs from the Middle East crisis. The Indonesian melt shop (1.2 MTPA) was commissioned ahead of schedule, and downstream expansions in India remain on track to support a 3.5 MTPA sales target by FY29. Key risk: QCO suspension and cheap imports could pressure pricing and market share.

Guidance read

FY27 volume growth of 7-9%: Management expects sales volume to grow 7-9% in FY27, driven by domestic demand and new capacities. H1 FY27 EBITDA per ton of ₹18,000-20,000: Blended EBITDA per ton guided at ₹18,000-20,000 for H1 FY27, factoring in higher energy costs. FY29 sales volume target of 3.5 MTPA: Company targets 3.5 million tons sales volume by FY29, implying double-digit CAGR over three years. FY27 capex of ₹2,600-2,800 crore: Capital expenditure for FY27 expected to be ₹2,600-2,800 crore, primarily for downstream expansions.

Risk read

Key risks include QCO suspension and cheap imports — Temporary suspension of Quality Control Order allows substandard imports, pressuring domestic pricing and MSMEs.; Energy cost spike from Middle East crisis — Fuel costs (LPG, natural gas) have risen 2.5-3x, impacting margins; pass-through is limited due to import competition.; Indonesian policy risk — Potential changes in Indonesian nickel export duties or restrictions could affect cost advantage of the new melt shop.; Export market uncertainty — Global trade tensions and geopolitical issues continue to subdue export demand, limiting volume growth outside India..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Shyam Metalics delivered a record Q4 FY26 with revenue of ₹5,240 Cr (+27% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹756 Cr (+33% YoY), driven by 26% volume growth to 4.94 MT and a favorable product mix shift toward value-added segments like CR coils and stainless steel. EBITDA margin expanded 60 bps YoY to 14.4%, aided by cost discipline and improved realizations. The board approved a new ₹2,700 Cr capex for a specialty wire mill and stainless steel downstream expansion, targeting commissioning by March 2029. Management guided for ~30% EBITDA growth in FY27, supported by ramp-up of CRM Phase 2, aluminium foil, and sponge iron capacity. Key risk: global steel price volatility and geopolitical disruptions could pressure realizations.

Guidance read

~30% EBITDA growth in FY27: Management expects EBITDA to grow ~30% YoY in FY27, driven by volume growth from new capacities and cost efficiencies. CRM EBITDA per ton of ₹10,000-11,000 in FY27: The CRM complex is expected to contribute EBITDA of ₹10,000-11,000 per ton in FY27. Aluminium EBITDA per ton of ₹35,000-40,000 in FY27: Aluminium segment EBITDA per ton is expected to be in the range of ₹35,000-40,000 in FY27. Capex of ₹2,900 Cr in FY27: The company plans to incur ₹2,900 Cr of capex in FY27 as part of the ₹10,000 Cr total capex program.

Risk read

Key risks include Global steel price volatility — Geopolitical tensions and trade actions could lead to price pressure and volatility in steel markets, impacting realizations.; Nickel sourcing challenges — Nickel prices have risen ~20% due to Indonesia supply cuts, posing cost risks for stainless steel production, though 75% of portfolio is low-nickel.; ED case on coal allocation — An ongoing ED investigation related to coal allocation could lead to legal or reputational risks, though management downplays it.; Pollution control board non-compliance — Central Pollution Control Board identified non-compliance issues; management expects resolution within 3 months..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.