Jindal Stainless vs JSW Steel Q4 FY26

JI

Jindal Stainless

Q4 FY26 · Diversified

Jindal Stainless delivered a resilient Q4 FY26 with consolidated EBITDA of ₹1,455 crore (+37% YoY) and PAT of ₹824 crore (+41% YoY), despite geopolitical headwinds impacting fuel costs. Full-year sales volume grew 8% YoY to 2.57 million tons, driven by strong domestic demand from automotive, metro, and white goods. Management guided FY27 volume growth of 7-9% and H1 EBITDA per ton of ₹18,000-20,000, factoring in elevated energy costs from the Middle East crisis. The Indonesian melt shop (1.2 MTPA) was commissioned ahead of schedule, and downstream expansions in India remain on track to support a 3.5 MTPA sales target by FY29. Key risk: QCO suspension and cheap imports could pressure pricing and market share.

Guidance read

FY27 volume growth of 7-9%: Management expects sales volume to grow 7-9% in FY27, driven by domestic demand and new capacities. H1 FY27 EBITDA per ton of ₹18,000-20,000: Blended EBITDA per ton guided at ₹18,000-20,000 for H1 FY27, factoring in higher energy costs. FY29 sales volume target of 3.5 MTPA: Company targets 3.5 million tons sales volume by FY29, implying double-digit CAGR over three years. FY27 capex of ₹2,600-2,800 crore: Capital expenditure for FY27 expected to be ₹2,600-2,800 crore, primarily for downstream expansions.

Risk read

Key risks include QCO suspension and cheap imports — Temporary suspension of Quality Control Order allows substandard imports, pressuring domestic pricing and MSMEs.; Energy cost spike from Middle East crisis — Fuel costs (LPG, natural gas) have risen 2.5-3x, impacting margins; pass-through is limited due to import competition.; Indonesian policy risk — Potential changes in Indonesian nickel export duties or restrictions could affect cost advantage of the new melt shop.; Export market uncertainty — Global trade tensions and geopolitical issues continue to subdue export demand, limiting volume growth outside India..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

JS

JSW Steel

Q4 FY26 · Manufacturing

JSW Steel reported a strong Q4 FY26 with consolidated revenue crossing ₹51,100 crore for the first time, adjusted EBITDA of ₹9,713 crore (19% margin), and normalized PAT of ₹3,475 crore (excluding exceptional gain of ₹17,888 crore from BPSL JV). The quarter was driven by record steel sales of ~8 million tons, 96% capacity utilization (ex-BF shutdown), and improved product mix. Management guided FY27 consolidated production of 29.75 million tons (+13% YoY) and sales of 28.6 million tons (+10% YoY), supported by domestic demand growth of 7-9%. Key risks include higher coking coal costs ($12-15/ton QoQ), Middle East conflict impacting gas/LPG supply, and potential safeguard duty withdrawal. The company announced a capex plan of ₹126,000 crore over 4-5 years to reach 62 million tons standalone capacity by FY32.

Guidance read

FY27 consolidated production target of 29.75 million tons: Management guided production of 29.75 million tons for FY27, representing ~13% growth on a like-for-like basis (excluding BPSL). FY27 sales volume guidance of 28.6 million tons: Sales volume expected at 28.6 million tons, implying ~10% growth YoY, including BMM Ispat acquisition. Capex of ₹22,000-24,000 crore in FY27: Part of the ₹126,000 crore growth capex plan to be spent over 4-5 years; FY27 spend guided at ₹22,000-24,000 crore. Target of 62 million tons standalone capacity by FY32: JSW Steel aims to expand standalone capacity to 62 million tons by FY32, with additional 16 million tons via JVs (JF Steel and POSCO).

Risk read

Key risks include Coking coal cost inflation — Management expects coking coal costs to rise by $12-15/ton in Q1 FY27, impacting margins.; Middle East conflict impact on gas/LPG supply — Analyst raised concern about gas shortages; management acknowledged limited exposure (5-6% of production) but noted cost impact and potential disruption if conflict escalates.; Potential withdrawal of safeguard duty — Analyst questioned risk of protection removal; management argued current duties are moderate and prices are aligned with international levels, but did not fully address the risk.; Execution risk on multiple large expansions — Simultaneous projects at Dolvi, Vijayanagar, Utkal, and JVs could strain execution and capital allocation..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.