Dodla Dairy FY26 Annual Earnings Summary
3 quarters covered · ₹3,118 Cr revenue · ₹205 Cr PAT · 7.3% average EBITDA margin.
Quarter-by-quarter progression
Management promises made during the year
Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY26Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q3 FY26Current-quarter commentary contains related risk or weakness, so the promise appears not to have been delivered yet.
Q4 FY26Risks flagged during the year
Erratic rainfall and lean season have pushed procurement costs to ₹37.29/litre, up 7.6% YoY, and management expects further pressure in Q3.
Q3 FY26 · highErratic rainfall and lack of flush season have driven procurement costs up ₹2.5/liter sequentially, with no immediate relief expected.
Q3 FY26 · highManagement delayed price hikes to maintain market share, compressing margins. If summer demand remains weak, margin recovery may be delayed.
Q4 FY26 · highFuel and packaging costs have risen sharply (plastic +30%); management uncertain on pass-through timing.
Q2 FY26 · mediumOsam operates at low margins (~2.6% EBITDA margin) and management could not provide a specific timeline for improvement to 8-9% levels, citing operational inefficiencies.
Q2 FY26 · mediumBulk SMP/butter sales dropped from ₹165 crore to ₹28 crore YoY, causing overall revenue growth to slow to 2.1%. This volatility may recur.
Q3 FY26 · mediumLarge capex projects (₹280 crore in Maharashtra, ₹50-60 crore in Uganda) face timeline and cost overrun risks.
Q3 FY26 · mediumEl Niño could lead to severe summers and further milk shortages, increasing procurement costs and pressuring margins.
Q4 FY26 · mediumAnalyst raised concern; management acknowledged uncertainty but noted potential offset from farmer shift to animal husbandry.
Q4 FY26 · mediumManagement expects procurement costs to drop ₹1-1.5/liter, but timing is uncertain; Q4 margins were cyclical trough.
What changed through the year
Q2 FY26 · EBITDA margin guidance of 8-10% for H2 FY26
Management expects to maintain EBITDA margins between 8% and 10% in the second half, barring weather-related disruptions.
Q2 FY26 · India standalone revenue growth of 5-6% in H2
India standalone revenue is expected to grow at 5-6% in the second half due to winter seasonality impacting value-added products.
Q2 FY26 · Maharashtra plant to scale to 2 lakh litres/day in 2 years
The Maharashtra facility currently processes 1.2 lakh litres/day and is targeted to reach 2 lakh litres/day within two years, with breakeven expected in 3-4 quarters.
Q3 FY26 · Price hike of ₹2-3/liter expected in summer
Management plans to increase milk prices by ₹2-3 per liter once summer demand picks up, to offset higher procurement costs.
Q3 FY26 · Maharashtra plant to start commercial operations by end of FY27
The Maharashtra greenfield project is on track, with ₹69 crore already spent out of ₹280 crore total capex. First-year revenue potential of ₹500-600 crore.
Q3 FY26 · Uganda greenfield expansion to generate revenue by end of FY28
A new 3 lakh liter/day plant near Kampala will focus on fresh milk and yogurt, with phase one capex of ₹50-60 crore funded by internal accruals.
Q3 FY26 · Value-added product mix target of 30-32% over long term
Management aims to increase VAP share from current 25% to 30-32% through paneer, curd, and ice cream growth.
Q4 FY26 · FY27 revenue growth in low-to-mid teens
Driven by 8-9% organic India growth, Africa's current trajectory, and full-year contribution from OSAM.
Q4 FY26 · Gross margin recovery of 50-100 bps over FY26
Expected as procurement normalizes and pricing actions take effect.
Q4 FY26 · Effective tax rate to normalize to 25-27%
Post completion of favorable tax orders received in FY26.
Q4 FY26 · Africa to scale to 15-18% of consolidated revenue by FY28
Supported by Phase 2 expansion in Uganda (pasteurized milk and products).