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What the record says.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank delivered a strong Q4 FY26, with net profit of ₹373.65 crore (up 28.01% YoY), driven by robust loan growth of 20.32% (22.57% including IBPC sales) and NIM expansion to 4.18%. CASA ratio improved to 28.14% (up 170bps YoY), and asset quality remained pristine with GNPA at 0.73% and NNPA at 0.18%. Management guided for FY27 loan growth of ~20% and deposit growth of ~16%, with ROA expected in the 1.9-2% range. Key risks include potential moderation in gold loan growth if gold prices stabilize, and margin pressure from rising deposit costs and MSME expansion.
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Guidance to track
- Management expects to defend the 20% loan growth achieved in FY26, driven by MSME and retail segments, even if gold loan growth moderates.
- Deposit growth target is set at least 1% higher than FY26's 14.94%, with focus on CASA and term deposits.
- Management guided for ROA in the 1.9-2% range, moderating from Q4's 2.05% due to expected margin normalization and branch expansion costs.
- Despite branch expansion and technology investments, management commits to keeping cost-to-income below 50%, targeting 46-47%.
Risks flagged
- If gold prices stabilize, loan growth may slow; management expects MSME and other segments to compensate, but execution risk remains.
- Deposit repricing benefits may be limited as industry competition keeps term deposit rates elevated, potentially compressing NIMs.
- Direct exposure is minimal (0.10% of portfolio), but indirect effects on the economy and borrower health could increase stress.
- New expected credit loss norms from April 2027 may require additional provisions; management expects ₹250 crore COVID buffer to largely offset the estimated ₹279 crore impact.
Key quotes
- We will grow the SCASA by 15%. In quarter 4 we have stated that the deposits growth will be in the 13 to 13.5%. Advances growth will be in 16 to 17%. Total business would grow 15% plus net interest margin will be 3.90 to 3.95%. ROA will be 1.85% plus and roe will be 14% plus and GNPA will be less than 1%.
- The quarter also saw the highest deposit growth in last 39 quarters that is 10 years. It's the highest advanced growth recorded in the past 40 quarters.
- We are still at a page where our own growth will not impact significantly the competition around. So we can still knock that extra growth away from the others.
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