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SBI reported a stellar Q3 FY25 with net profit surging 84% YoY to INR 16,891 crore, driven by robust credit growth of 13.49% YoY, industry-leading asset quality (slippage ratio 0.39%, credit cost 0.24%), and strong fee income. Domestic advances grew 14.06% YoY led by SME (+18%), agriculture (+15%), and corporate (+15%). Deposits rose 9.81% YoY to INR 52.29 trillion, with CASA at 39.2%. NIM compression of 13bps QoQ was due to higher cost of funds and MTM losses, but management guided NIM above 3% and credit cost at ~50bps. The corporate pipeline stands at INR 483,000 crore, supporting 14-16% credit growth guidance. Digital initiatives (YONO, AI) and budget tailwinds (tax cuts, MSME push) provide further impetus. Risk: Elevated SMA-2 (INR 7,424 crore) though largely attributed to one regularized account.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- Management reiterated guidance of 14-16% credit growth for FY25, supported by strong corporate pipeline and retail momentum.
- Deposit growth guidance revised to ~10% for FY25, with focus on improving CASA mix.
- Management guided NIM to remain above 3% going forward, despite rate cut expectations.
- Credit cost guidance of around 50 basis points through business cycles, reflecting confidence in asset quality.
Risks flagged
- SMA-2 loans increased to INR 7,424 crore from INR 1,840 crore, though management attributed most to one account that has been regularized.
- A shallow rate cut cycle could compress NIM by 2-3bps; deeper cuts may require active liability management.
- Xpress Credit GNPA rose from 0.77% to 1.11% due to slowdown and digital transition; management expects double-digit growth to resume.
- Forex income fell sharply due to MTM losses from USD/INR volatility; management termed it transitory but recurring risk remains.
Key quotes
- Our guidance in terms of the credit growth of 14% to 16%, and it's good. We will explain to you where and how we are confident about it.
- We have a very healthy pipeline, almost INR 483,000 crores, consisting of INR 222,000 crores, which is sanctioned, almost 800 proposals, and INR 261,000 crores under process.
- Our guidance is that the NIM would be higher than 3%, and the ROE, ROA will be 1%, and more than 15% is the guidance we are sticking to it.
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