Radico Khaitan · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
Guidance tracker
Management reiterated its medium-term target of 15-16% EBITDA margin by end of FY26, driven by ongoing premiumization and price increases. Gross margin was 41.5% in Q1 FY25, down from 43.6% YoY due to grain inflation headwinds.
Management confirmed annual ad spends should be in the 7-8% range. Q1 FY25 was an aberration with significantly lower spends due to muted industry growth, policy delays, and elections. Expects catch-up spending in Q2-Q4.
After completing major expansion CapEx (INR 80-90 crore remaining in FY25), steady-state maintenance CapEx will be INR 70-80 crore annually from FY26 onward.
Some southern states are planning to rationalize liquor duties, which management views as positive for industry volume growth. Additionally, some states are considering price increases which will provide further pricing support.
Driven by robust prestige and above category contributions with continued premiumization trajectory across brand portfolio.
Revised upward from earlier 100bps guidance; supported by operating leverage, premium mix shift, and stable commodity environment.
Luxury and semi-luxury brands contributing ~50% YoY value growth; includes ramp-up of Royal Ranthambore, Sangam, and Spirit of Kashmir.
Brand currently in 14 states, expanding to 24 states within 6 months to capitalize on 70M case semi-luxury segment growing at 15-16%.
Launched in Q1 targeting 17M+ case super premium whisky segment; covering 70% of industry with second half rollout.
Management targets progressive margin improvement, expecting to reach late-teens EBITDA margins in three years, with Q3 onward seeing further grain and E&A cost relief.
Prestige and above category expected to maintain strong momentum with 15%+ volume growth over the next two quarters and into one to two years, driven by premiumization and new product launches.
State-specific disruptions (Karnataka price hikes, UP quotas, Andhra Pradesh elections) have largely normalized; regular segment expected to return to mid-single digit growth from Q3 onward.
Management working on one premium brand launch expected to hit markets either this fiscal year or by beginning of next fiscal year.
Management reiterated 20%+ overall volume growth target for FY2026, with confidence in surpassing this figure given H1 momentum and strong brand pipeline.
Company targets 150 basis points margin improvement in FY2026, followed by 125 basis points annual expansion over the next two years to reach late teens margins.
Luxury portfolio (Rampur, Sangam, Jaisalmer, Royal Ranthambore, Spirit of Cashmere) on track to achieve INR 500 crore revenue in FY26, up from INR 340 crore in FY25.
Net debt reduced by INR 146 crore since March 2025; company expects to become completely debt-free by FY2027 through free cash flow generation.
Luxury and semi-luxury brands crossed ₹100 crore in Q3 alone and ₹250 crore in 9M FY25. With exceptional domestic and international demand, management expects to cross ₹500 crore net sales in FY26, driven by new state rollouts and capacity expansion.
Management targets 100-125 basis points annual EBITDA margin improvement over the next three years, reaching approximately 13% EBITDA margin by FY28, driven by product mix optimization and premiumization.
The Prestige and Above segment, now 42% of the total IMFL market (up from 25% three years ago), is expected to sustain 15%+ volume growth, with Radico's growth excluding Andhra Pradesh running higher than 17.7% reported.
After completing major expansion projects, maintenance and growth CapEx will run at ₹100-125 crore annually for the next two to three years, with vault capacity expected to double in three years to meet single malt demand.
Management guides for continued margin expansion of ~125bps annually over next two years through ongoing premiumization and operating leverage, targeting late-teen EBITDA margins.
Full-year luxury and super-premium revenue expected at INR 500 crores, up from INR 343 crores in FY2025, driven by ramp-up of recent launches.
Net debt reduced by INR 2.09 billion since March 2025; management confident of becoming debt-free by FY2027 given strong cash generation.
Advertising and promotion to remain in 6%-8% range to sustain brand visibility and growth, with quarterly variation based on campaign timing.
Current luxury portfolio at INR 340 crore with 32% YoY growth, bolstered by two luxury brand launches in Q1 FY26. Management expressed confidence in surpassing this target.
P&A segment demonstrated strong momentum with 22% value growth in Q4. Management targets double-digit P&A growth driven by new product launches and expanded distribution.
Current net debt ~INR 600 crore with planned reduction trajectory: 35%-40% reduction in FY26, reaching near-zero debt levels by FY27 through cash generation and working capital optimization.
FY25 saw 150bps margin expansion. Management expects at least 100bps annual improvement going forward through premiumization, cost savings from FTA, and stable raw material prices.
Targeting 125 bps margin expansion (annualized) driven by 60 bps from price increases in select states and 200+ bps from continued premiumization, offsetting cost pressures including 15% glass price inflation.
PNA category expected to grow 20% in volume, with Magic Moments vodka, After Dark whiskey, and Royal Ranthambore as key growth drivers, supplemented by new flavor launches under Flavours of India.
Targeting INR 600 crores from luxury portfolio (up from INR 475 crores in FY2026), driven by national expansion of Virasat Indian Single Malt and Spirit of Kashmyr from 10 to 20 states, plus 1,000 on-trade advocacy sessions.
Capital expenditure directed toward internal capacity expansion and optimization, with 60-65% capacity outsourced through quality-managed lease arrangements. Company remains confident capacity will not constrain 20% PNA growth.