Paramount Communications · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
As a copper/aluminum cables manufacturer, raw material costs represent 70-80% of COGS. While management hedges via 3-4 month firm price orders and next-day metal booking, commodity swings can still impact margins if customer pass-throughs lag.
Despite current tariff normalization after the US Supreme Court's EPA tariff invalidation, future policy shifts under a new US administration could reintroduce punitive duties, potentially again impacting India's competitive positioning versus Vietnam, South Korea, and Cambodia.
Analyst asked about expected revenue contribution from 132 KV EHV cables at Narmadapuram. Management indicated approvals would come within ~1 year of manufacturing start, with full approvals by FY29 — a timeline that could slip given the certification complexity and regulatory requirements.
Export order book stood at only INR 97 crores (vs INR 125 crore quarterly revenue run rate), raising questions about H2 export sustainability. Management attributed this to deliberate strategy of not taking long-duration firm price orders to avoid aluminum hedge risk, but this limits visibility.