OILANDNATURALGAS Q4 FY26 earnings call.
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ONGC reported consolidated Q4 FY26 PAT of ₹13,678 crore, surging 53% YoY on the back of improved crude realizations and rupee depreciation, while full-year consolidated PAT grew 30% to ₹49,793 crore. Standalone PAT for Q4 stood at ₹6,650 crore (up 3% QoQ). However, standalone annual PAT declined 8% to ₹32,894 crore due to lower crude realization and GST increase from 12% to 18%. The company declared its highest-ever total dividend payout of ₹16,669 crore (₹13.25/share). Chairman emphasized the strategic pivot toward gas, noting ONGC now produces marginally more gas than oil, with new well gas (12% of Brent) gradually replacing legacy $7 gas. Three hydrocarbon discoveries in Mumbai Offshore were announced with "fantastic" flow rates. DUDP project monetization commenced in March with 4 of 15 wells opened; full monetization expected by September-October. KG 98/2 faces geological surprises impacting oil production, expected to recover within a year. The company targets ~₹33,000 crore E&P capex for FY27. Key risks include execution delays on DUDP/KG 98/2, 7-8% natural production decline in aging fields, and Brent price volatility.
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Guidance to track
- Exploration & Production capex expected at ₹33,000 crore for FY27, with additional ₹10-11,000 crore for non-E&P activities. Western offshore will receive 70% of capex.
- Annual gas production growth of 7-8% expected from new projects including DUDP (FY26), KG 98/2 gas (July-August 2026), and DSF (FY28 adding 4-5 MMSCMD at free pricing).
- Oil production from KG 98/2 expected to recover to original levels within approximately one year after implementing identified geological solutions.
- With BP now managing 100% of western offshore under TSP2, ONGC commits to arresting decline and achieving growth starting FY28-29.
Risks flagged
- KG basin Block 98/2 experienced unexpected geological surprises causing oil production to drop significantly. Management has identified solutions but recovery will take ~12 months and involves drilling additional wells.
- DUDP project monetization commenced late (March vs. earlier target) with only 4 of 15 wells opened by quarter-end. Full opening pushed to September-October with peak production 1-2 years away.
- OPAL operated at less than 60% capacity in March Q4 due to gas allocation diversion for LPG production. Full recovery expected within 4-5 days but represents operational vulnerability.
- Management explicitly refused to disclose exploration capex breakdown citing competitive sensitivity, making it difficult to independently verify forward production guidance from disclosed well counts.
Key quotes
- We produce today and sell more gas than oil. Gas is now little more than oil... India is the highest paying market in any onshore thing for new wells.
- We almost turned it around [OPAL] because last year if we had some small issue otherwise our target was 1,500 crore but we achieved 126 crore... internal target is 1,500 to 2,000 crore.
- We should call ourselves gas and oil company not oil and gas company.
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