OIL / guidance tracker

Keep management guidance in view.

Oil India · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.

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Guidance tracker

What management said would happen.

FY26 Production Target: 3.70 MMT Oil & 3.40 BCM Gas

Oil India targets 3.70 MMT crude oil (vs 3.458 MMT achieved in FY25) and 3.40 BCM natural gas production for FY26.

growth

FY27 Production Target: 3.95 MMT Oil & 4.31 BCM Gas

FY27 production targets set at 3.95 MMT crude oil and 4.31 BCM natural gas, implying ~7% and ~27% growth respectively over FY25 actuals.

growth

NRL Expansion Commissioning: December 2025

Numaligarh refinery expansion (80% physical progress) to begin phased commissioning from December 2025, reaching 40% utilization in H2 FY27 and 80% by FY28.

expansion

FY26 Capex: ₹6,995 Cr Standalone + ₹9,133 Cr for NRL

Oil India standalone capex budget of ₹6,995 crore for FY26 (₹7,585 crore for FY27), with NRL capex at ₹9,133 crore (₹7,300 crore for FY27).

capex

Crude Oil Production FY27: 3.9 MMT minimum, potentially 4.0 MMT

Company achieved ~1 MMT in Q1 and expects to maintain this quarterly run-rate. FY29 target is 4.2 MMT from main producing areas excluding any discovery-based additions.

production

Natural Gas Production FY28: 3.8 BCM

Once DNPL connectivity (200m within NRL in 2-3 months) and IGL pipeline (by Dec 2027) are operational, additional 1.5 MMSCMD (~0.5 BCM annually) will flow through DNPL to national grid.

production

100 Wells Drilled in FY27

42 exploratory and 58 development wells planned. Capex budget for FY27 is ₹8,600 cr. Deepwater exploration in KG and Mahanadi basins to begin with first rig in June-July 2027.

capex

NRL Capacity Utilization: 75% by FY28 Year-End

DST, SRU, and ESD units to be commissioned by Oct-Nov 2026; full 9 MMT refinery project completion by March 2027 with gradual ramp-up to 75% utilization by FY28-end.

expansion

FY26 Oil Production Target: 3.55 MMT (down from 3.7 MMT)

Original 3.7 MMT target revised down to 3.55 MMT due to Q2 production disruption from ethnic unrest in Northeast. Management is cautiously optimistic about recovery but keeping fingers crossed.

growth

FY27-28 Production Outlook: Oil to reach 4 MMT by FY28

FY27 oil target: 3.75 MMT (conservative) or 3.798 MMT; FY28 oil target: 3.98-4.0 MMT. Gas targets: 3.8 BCM (FY27) and 4.6 BCM (FY28) contingent on NRL refinery ramp-up.

growth

NRL Refinery Expansion Commissioning: December 2025

Primary unit commissioning expected end of December 2025. Full ramp-up to 3 MMSCFD gas intake will take until Q2 FY27 due to complex refinery stabilization requirements.

expansion

DNPL Pipeline Expansion: April 2026

Mechanical completion achieved October 12, 2025. Awaiting PESO/DGMS approvals and 7-day disruption window for hook-up. Full 2.5 MMT capacity expected by April 2026.

expansion