NMDC Q3 FY25 earnings call.
A source-linked concall view: reported numbers, management language, guidance, commitments and risks that should carry forward.
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Revenue
₹6,568 Cr
verified against source
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EBITDA
Pending
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What the record says.
NMDC delivered a strong Q3 FY25 with production of 10.03 million tons, surpassing street expectations despite the broader steel downturn. The company's iron ore pricing discipline enabled margin resilience even as global steel prices softened. Key strategic initiatives include securing 1,500 acres of land from RINL for a major blending yard and pellet plant development, while CapEx guidance of INR 4,000 crore for FY25 (double last year) signals aggressive capacity expansion toward the 100 million ton target. NMDC Steel ramp-up continues with 380,000 tons production, though dispatch constraints from rake availability remain the critical bottleneck for reaching breakeven. The Karnataka royalty bill uncertainty persists as a contingent liability, though management confirmed any prospective levy increase will be passed through to customers. For FY26, production guidance of 53 million tons appears achievable with new sidings at Bacheli and Kirandul coming online. Key risks include coal block commissioning delays (Tokisud expected mid-2026), persistent rake availability issues at NMDC Steel, and potential pricing pressure from global headwinds.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- New railway sidings at Bacheli (Line 4) and Kirandul (Line 13) on manual dumper load system will add 6-7 million tons incremental capacity. With Deposit 5 EC approval (+2MT) expected by February 2025, company is positioned to achieve 53 million tons next year.
- SP3 project coming online will substantially increase processing capacity. Combined with EC enhancements, FY27 production should reach approximately 60 million tons.
- January 2025 production exceeded 5 million tons. With 11-12 million tons needed in February-March, management expressed confidence in achieving 16-17 million tons for Q4, well above Q4 FY24.
- Pellet plant at Nagarnar with common facilities configured for 6MT upgrade. 2MT plant completion expected by end of calendar year 2025. Upgrade to 6MT pending board approval and Nagarnar steel plant expansion.
Risks flagged
- Production of 380,000 tons in Q3 exceeded sales of 367,000 tons. Rake availability remains the critical bottleneck at 1.4 lakh tons/day versus required 2.5 lakh tons/day. Company targets private rake suppliers (LSFTO) to resolve by March-April 2025.
- Bill proposes 1.5x or 3x additional royalty on existing 22.5% rate. Worst case could increase from 22.5 to 65.5 per ton prospectively plus retrospective impact. Company treating as contingent liability with most recoverable from customers.
- Tokisud and Rohne coal blocks remain in Section 9/11 approval stages. Expected commissioning pushed to mid-2026, representing a significant delay to planned integration and cost savings.
- Karnataka's Maximum Permissible Annual Production cap limits Kumaraswamy to 8.62MT in FY25 (rising to 8.92MT next year) versus 10MT EC clearance. This restricts upside from Karnataka operations despite available capacity.
Key quotes
- We have locked in approximately INR 3,112 crores of CapEx this year, which is already we have exceeded last year, and we expect to have a CapEx of around INR 4,000 crores in this financial year, which will almost be twice as much as we did last year.
- We have to focus at least 1.5x or at least 2x of our production capacity in terms of evacuation. That is very important. Evacuation methods have to be fungible.
- This figure, 70, might become 80, it might become 65. This is what we are targeting as of now. When we make a deep dive to each project, then we decide whether this project is required or not.
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