Q1 FY25 volume guidance: 50 million tons
Maintain FY25 production target of 50 million tons despite ~1 million ton Q1 shortfall due to monsoon flooding and May go-slow. Confident of making up shortfall by mid-October and outpacing prior year in H2.
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NMDC · forward-looking guidance across the available source record.
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What management said would happen.
growth
NSL break-even timeline: Q2 monthly, Q3 quarterly, FY25 annual
Monthly break-even expected in Q2 FY25 with 150,000 tons/month run rate. Quarterly break-even in Q3. Full-year FY25 break-even target. Current run rate 120,000 tons/month.
Slurry pipeline completion: March 2026 full system operational
Pipeline (73/131 km laid) and pellet plant delayed to mid-2026 for redesign. Full system expected operational by March 2026. CapEx target INR 3,200 crore for FY25.
NSL debt recovery: INR 100 crore/month from Q2
Pre-demerger expense of INR 2,502 crore to be liquidated within 12 months at INR 100 crore/month run rate, enabled by improved NSL cash flows post break-even.
FY26 Production Target of 53 Million Tons
New railway sidings at Bacheli (Line 4) and Kirandul (Line 13) on manual dumper load system will add 6-7 million tons incremental capacity. With Deposit 5 EC approval (+2MT) expected by February 2025, company is positioned to achieve 53 million tons next year.
FY27 Volume Target of 60 Million Tons
SP3 project coming online will substantially increase processing capacity. Combined with EC enhancements, FY27 production should reach approximately 60 million tons.
Q4 FY25 Volume Target of 16-17 Million Tons
January 2025 production exceeded 5 million tons. With 11-12 million tons needed in February-March, management expressed confidence in achieving 16-17 million tons for Q4, well above Q4 FY24.
2 Million Ton Pellet Plant Commissioning by Calendar Year-End
Pellet plant at Nagarnar with common facilities configured for 6MT upgrade. 2MT plant completion expected by end of calendar year 2025. Upgrade to 6MT pending board approval and Nagarnar steel plant expansion.
FY26 Sales Volume: 55.4 Million Tonnes
Management targets 100% EC capacity utilization across Donimalai and Bailadila clusters, representing ~10% growth from FY25 notional production of ~50MT (which was impacted by 43-44 strike days). Includes 2MT enhancement from Deposit 10 (10MT EC with 2MT increase applied).
Pellet Production Scale-Up: 3 Million Tonnes DRI-Grade
Targeting 6x increase from 0.5MT in FY25 to 3MT (full KIOCL capacity) with transition to DRI-grade pellets (66-67% Fe) commanding $30-40/ton premium over current 62-63% Fe grade. DRI pellets expected at $140-150/ton vs current ~$108-110/ton.
FY26 CapEx: INR 4,000 Crore
INR 40,000 crore projects already sanctioned (INR 8,600 crore under execution), with INR 12,000 crore to be sanctioned by Q2. CapEx flow to accelerate to INR 10,000+ crore annually from FY27-28 as awarded tenders start execution.
NSL Turnaround to Full Utilization
Nagarnar steel plant targeting 2.6-2.7MT (~98% capacity utilization) in FY26 from ~1.6MT FY25. 20 additional SFTO rakes being arranged for dispatch. Cash positive in March-April; expect green P&L from Q1 FY26.