NLC India · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Standalone under-recovery widened to 623 crore in 9M FY26 from 510 crore a year ago. Erratic quarterly variation reflects ongoing technical issues at TPS2 expansion. Second unit modification targeted for H1 FY27 only.
Q3 revenue stayed flat YoY despite Gatamur Unit 2 commissioning because favorable weather suppressed national power demand, limiting generation from existing units. This risk is structural and recurring.
Cost of fuel consumed increased as Gatamur's higher-cost coal is now operational. Management guided to only ~1 rupee per unit saving from own-coal sourcing, insufficient to offset volume growth in fuel expenses.
Consolidated PAT includes a 260 crore favorable CERC order benefit. Without this, PAT growth would be even more subdued, raising questions about base business profitability trajectory.