NHPC Q3 FY26 earnings call.
A source-linked concall view: reported numbers, management language, guidance, commitments and risks that should carry forward.
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Revenue
₹2,221 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
10%
reported change
EBITDA
Pending
latest reported figure
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Actual signal trajectory
Where this quarter sits.
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What the record says.
NHPC delivered a solid Q3 FY26 with 9-month revenue of INR 8,800 crore (+10% YoY) and PAT of INR 2,306 crore (+7% YoY), driven primarily by commissioning of the 800 MW Parvati-II Power Station. Q3 standalone revenue declined 3% YoY to INR 2,221 crore due to a one-off INR 500 crore item in the prior year base. The company achieved 15% generation growth (25,849 MU) driven by Parvati-II and Parvati-III ramp-up. Key milestones include commissioning of 2 units (500 MW) of Subansiri Lower with 2 more units expected by March 2026, and full commissioning of the 300 MW Karnisar Solar Project. Management provided specific CapEx guidance of INR 13,300 crore for FY26 and INR 15,000 crore for FY27. The project pipeline is robust with ~10,000 MW of new hydro projects targeted to start construction in 2026. Risks include tariff approval uncertainty for high-cost Subansiri Lower (INR 7.5/unit levelized tariff), PPA signing delays in the solar segment due to DISCOM hesitancy for standalone solar, and geological challenges at Teesta-VI. Management remains confident of achieving all project timelines and forecasts a much better full-year result.
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Guidance to track
- Nine-month consolidated CapEx already at INR 8,844 crore vs INR 7,405 crore in prior year period, tracking towards full-year target.
- Significant increase planned for next fiscal year to support the ambitious project pipeline including multiple hydro projects and solar expansion.
- Based on current project timelines, NHPC expects to add approximately 2,744 MW of hydroelectric capacity in FY27, primarily from Subansiri Lower (remaining 6 units), Pakal Dul, and Kiru projects.
- Management expects sustained high CapEx phase as ~10,000 MW of new hydro projects (Uri-I Stage-II, Dulhasti Stage-II, Sawalkot, Subansiri Upper, Etalin, Kamala) enter construction.
Risks flagged
- At INR 7.5/unit levelized tariff based on INR 28,000 crore CapEx, there is uncertainty whether CERC will allow full cost recovery given 20-25 year project timeline. Management is confident due to delays being beyond control, but analyst questioned whether beneficiaries may push for concessions.
- Only 6,000 MW of PPAs signed out of 20,000 MW bid out. DISCOMs are hesitant due to connectivity timelines (29-30 months), preference for RTC/assured peak power over standalone solar, and inadequate demand planning. Management hopes to sign 2,000-3,000 MW more in 2-3 months.
- 71% physical progress achieved but headrace tunnel excavation facing severe geological issues causing slower progress. While management is confident of 2029 commissioning, any geological surprise could delay the project significantly given the sensitivity of underground works.
- Only 80% of estimated revenue being recognized pending CERC tariff notification. This creates a timing difference where ~20% of revenue (approximately INR 225 crore for Parvati-II alone) is deferred, understating true profitability until regulatory approval.
Key quotes
- We will be taking 100% expenses and 80% of the revenue. So our profit will not be reflected in true manner. But fact remains that this is the practice because you cannot being conservative in accounting, we have been doing this—CERC is the final authority.
- I'm 100% sure that whatever the projects we will start, those will be very attractive ones with generation cost of around maybe INR 4.5 per unit. And if I see this total cost including pumping, that will be around INR 7.
- We are going to start these projects during 2026. Some of them will be in the second quarter, first quarter of 2026-27. So this is again 5 or 6 projects which we will be starting this year itself, total comprising of around 10,000 MW.
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