National Aluminium Company · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
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Risk intelligence
Spot alumina prices have corrected sharply from ~$600/t in Q4 FY25 to ~$400 currently, driven by new Indonesian/Indian refinery capacity and Chinese smelter curtailments. Management flagged risk of further downside to $350-400 range.
Rusal/Artel unwilling to provide RTA technology for 0.5 mtpa brownfield smelter. Management restarting DPR with EIL; timeline to final investment decision extended by 6-8 months minimum. Total INR 30,000 crore CapEx (smelter + CPP) at risk of further delay.
Guinea supplies 60-70% of global bauxite. Recent revocation of EGA's mining license and potential policy changes pose supply disruption risk to global alumina industry, though NALCO has Pottangi mine security.
The INR 4,500-5,000 crore special grade aluminum JV with MIDHANI is on hold due to lack of commercial viability. Demand projections from transportation/railways not materializing as DPR assumed. Ministry-level discussions ongoing.
