Alumina Price Oversupply
Indonesia refinery capacity additions and China's 45 million ton smelting cap have created structural oversupply, keeping alumina prices depressed at $310-380 vs prior $562. Management sees this persisting through FY26.
NATIONALUM / Q3-FY26 / risks
Keep the risk register visible.
National Aluminium Company · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
Research layer active
ConCallIQ research layer
Signal, with the source still visible.
Use the controls below to narrow the view, then follow the evidence into the next layer of context.
Risk intelligence
Material risks this quarter
high
Middle East Shipping Disruptions
January shipments impacted by Middle East tensions with only 2 shipments vs planned 4, affecting Q4 alumina sales target of 1.3MT. February-March recovery uncertain.
CP Coke Cost Inflation
New six-month contract (Jan-Jun 2026) at INR 54,600/ton vs INR 42,764 average, a 28% increase adding ~INR 2,000/ton to Q4 aluminum COP. Management expects to partially offset via efficiency improvements.
New Refinery Ramp-Up Execution
10 lakh ton refinery commissioning in June with 3-4 month stabilization period. Management guided conservative 300KT production (vs prior 500KT expectation) citing typical ramp-up challenges. Actual output depends on smooth commissioning.