Alumina price correction risk
Spot alumina prices have already corrected to $530 from Q3's $641 average and could decline further to $450-500 range as global surplus emerges by end of 2025, impacting export realizations.
NATIONALUM / Q3-FY25 / risks
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National Aluminium Company · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
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Material risks this quarter
high
US tariff impact on aluminum demand
25% US tariffs on aluminum could redirect metal to other markets, pressuring LME prices, and potential smelter closures would reduce alumina demand.
Wind power plant impairment
INR 106 crore impairment taken for Rajasthan wind plants due to lack of PPA; continued uncertainty around power offtake could impact future financials.
Alumina price outlook uncertain
Management deflected on specific EBITDA/ton projections for new smelter capacity, stating financials 'not yet worked out in detail' - full project returns remain unclear.