Alumina Price Weakness from New Indonesian Capacity
2-3 new alumina refineries started in Indonesia along with smelter capacity reductions in China and other regions have increased alumina availability, creating sustained price pressure below $350.
NATIONALUM / Q2-FY26 / risks
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National Aluminium Company · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
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Material risks this quarter
high
Bauxite Mine Lease Renewal Uncertainty
Central block of Panchpatmali bauxite mine lease expires in 2029 with uncertain royalty terms upon renewal. Government may impose additional premiums similar to iron ore (150% extra) though clarity on bauxite is lacking.
Alumina Spot vs Term Price Gap
Term contracts currently yield ~$350 while spot prices are $310-320, creating ~$30-40/ton execution risk. Management prefers 50-50 term/spot split but market timing is challenging.
Refinery Expansion Execution Risk
Critical packages (precipitation tanks, hydrate filtration, calcination, evaporation) remain in 20% pending work. Any further delays could push June 2026 commissioning beyond target.