Fifth Stream Refinery Production Target
Mechanical completion by March 2026 with commercial production commencing June 2026, targeting 5 lakh tonnes output in FY27 (partial year) before ramping to full 10 lakh tonne capacity within 6 months.
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FY26 Alumina Production Guidance
FY26 alumina production targeted at 23 lakh tonnes, up from 20.7 lakh tonnes in FY25, with exports increasing from 36 to 41-42 shipments (adding ~1-1.5 lakh tonnes).
Smelter DPR Timeline
Brownfield 0.5 MT aluminum smelter DPR to be completed within 7-8 months of consultant appointment (targeted within next 2-3 months), with land acquisition finalization in 4-6 months and commissioning targeted for FY30.
Domestic Alumina Sales Ramp-up
Domestic alumina sales increasing to 1-1.2 lakh tonnes in FY26 from 40,000 tonnes last year, reducing export concentration and LME price dependency.
FY27 Alumina Production: 500,000 tons from new refinery
New 1 million ton capacity refinery (5th stream) to commission June 2026 with 2-3 month ramp-up to 60-70% utilization in FY27.
Full Refinery Ramp-up in FY2028
Full capacity utilization expected in FY2028 with ~800,000 tons production (80% utilization over 12 months).
Annual Alumina Sales Target: 1.25-1.3 Million Tons
H2 alumina sales guidance of 600,000-650,000 tons to achieve full year target of 1.25-1.3 million tons.
Smelter Expansion DPR Ready: June-July 2026
Consultant for DPR (both CPP and smelter) to be appointed this month with DPR completion in 6 months, board approval targeted June-July 2026.
Refinery expansion commissioning by December 2025
Fifth stream expansion (1 million tpa) targeting trial commissioning by December 2025 with commercial volumes from April FY27, targeting 7-8 lakh tons production in FY27 first year.
Coal production ramp-up to 4 million tons
Utkal D&E coal blocks ramping up from 3 million tons in FY25 to 4 million tons in FY26, with 50-50 blend of captive and linkage coal required for CPP operations.
Smelter tender to be floated in 7-8 months
Technology partner (AP Tech/Rio Tinto) negotiations nearly complete; tender for 0.5 million tpa smelter expansion to be floated within 6-8 months with INR 17,153 crore project cost.
5-10% volume growth targeted next year
Management targets 5-10% volume growth in FY26 through operational improvements at existing facilities, excluding smelter expansion which will take time.
FY26 Alumina Sales Target: 1.3 million tons
Full-year alumina sales guidance maintained at 1.3 million tons with Q4 expected at 200,000-250,000 tons despite January Middle East disruptions affecting shipments.
Q4 Alumina Realization: $310-320/ton
Q4 alumina spot prices expected at $310-320/ton average, down from $349 in Q3, reflecting continued oversupply conditions.
LME Outlook: $2,900-3,000 for FY27
Management expects aluminum LME to average $2,800-2,900 for FY27, supported by supply cuts and China's capacity cap, above $2,600 floor.
FY27 CapEx: INR 1,800-2,000 crore
Next fiscal year CapEx targeted at INR 1,800-2,000 crore, with INR 500-600 crore remaining for new refinery completion. Smelter expansion DPR by mid-2026.
FY26 EBITDA Margin Target: 36-37%
Management targets 36-37% EBITDA margin for FY26, down from ~46% in FY25, reflecting lower alumina prices (~$400/t vs $600/t) offset by volume growth and INR 1,000-2,000/t cost reduction in alumina production.
Alumina Realization Q1 FY26: ~$400/t
Current alumina spot prices at ~$400/t with recent tenders at $350; management expects stabilization around $400 level through Q1.
FY26 CapEx: INR 1,700 crore
CapEx guidance for FY26 is INR 1,700 crore (~60% toward refinery expansion and Pottangi mine), with INR 2,000 crore planned for FY27.
5th Stream Alumina Commissioning: May-June 2026
Mechanical completion expected Jan-Feb 2026, followed by 2-4 months commissioning; commercial production targeted May-June 2026. 75% financial commitment completed with ~INR 875 crore remaining.
FY2027 Alumina Production Target: 25 Lakh Tons
5th stream refinery commissioning begins June 2026 with ramp-up over 3-4 months; management targets incremental 2 lakh tons in FY2027, potentially rising to 10 lakh tons annual capacity utilization in subsequent years.
FY2027 Alumina Realization Guidance: $310-320/ton
Spot prices currently at $310-320 with expected average of $310 for full FY2027, reflecting continued oversupply from Indonesian refineries and Middle East smelter production cuts.
FY2027 Aluminum Realization Guidance: $3,000-3,100 Average
LME aluminum expected to normalize to $3,000-3,100 average once Middle East smelters (Qatalum, EGA) resume full operations; Q1 FY2027 realization at INR 3,500-3,600 currently.
FY2027-28 CapEx Ramp: INR 4,000-5,000 Crore Annually
5th stream completion drives FY2026 CapEx of ~INR 2,000 crore; smelter DPR (target: Q3 FY2027) initiates procurement cycle with INR 4,000-5,000 crore annual CapEx from FY2027-28, peaking at INR 8,000-10,000 crore in FY2029-30.