FY25 Revenue: Higher than FY24
Management targets revenue higher than FY24 but declined to provide specific numbers, citing clarity after Q2 results.
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Three Deliveries Targeted in FY25
One destroyer (ahead of schedule), one frigate (first of class, targeting scheduled date), and sixth Scorpene submarine (lingering due to unavoidable reasons).
FY26 Delivery Schedule: Four Platforms
Two frigates, one merchant vessel, one fast patrol vessel targeted for FY26 if second frigate slips from FY25.
P-75 Additional Submarines: Advanced Stage
Two rounds of costing committee assessment completed; pricing submitted and committee nearing final recommendations for order placement.
Three major deliveries targeted by December 2024
Sixth Scorpène submarine (as per schedule), fourth Project 15B destroyer (two months ahead of schedule), and first Project 17A frigate targeted before year-end.
FY25 revenue growth of 10-12% YoY
Management guided to approximately 10-12% top-line growth over FY24, driven by continued execution across defense and offshore programs.
INR 5,000 crore CapEx over 4-5 years
Plans to invest INR 5,000 crore developing 15 acres adjacent to existing yard (shipbuilding/repair facility with 180m x 60m dry dock) and 40 acres near JNPT (for large vessel construction), doubling capacity in terms of numbers and vessel size.
Normalized PBT margins of 12-15% for new projects
Management stated that normalized margin for the industry is 12-15% PBT; current elevated margins reflect completion efficiencies on legacy projects that will normalize for future programs.
FY26 Revenue Guidance: ~INR 12,500 crore
Management expects FY26 revenue of approximately INR 12,500 crore, representing ~6-7% growth over FY25 standalone revenue. This guidance is based on current order book execution, primarily P17A deliveries and offshore projects.
FY27 Revenue Growth: ~5% over FY26
Management guided that FY27 revenue should grow approximately 5% over FY26, implying ~INR 13,125 crore. Growth is expected to accelerate thereafter as submarine projects (P75 additional + P75(I)) ramp up.
Stable EBITDA Margins: 12-15% for New Projects
CFO clarified that for new project bookings, normalized EBITDA margins are expected in the 12-15% range. This is below the 25-30% margins seen on project completions (like current P17A ships) due to earlier-stage provisioning for warranties and defects.
P75 Additional Submarines: Contract Signing by FY26 End
Commercial negotiations with MoD are complete; project is at the government sanction stage. Management remains hopeful that the contract for three additional Scorpene-class submarines will be signed before the financial year ends.
Normalized Margins: 12-15% PBT
Management explicitly stated sustainable margin for defense shipbuilding is 12-15% PBT, versus current elevated levels from legacy orders. This is a key guidance revision.
No Revenue Decline in FY26
Management stated there will not be a decline in next year revenues, with possible marginal growth. Growth numbers not specifically projected.
P75 Order Expected Before March 31, 2025
Three additional Scorpene submarines; all internal processes complete, awaiting final government approvals. High confidence expressed by management.
Floating Dry Dock CapEx: INR 500 crores
Approximately INR 350 crores to be realized next financial year. Full completion expected in FY26.
Medium-term PBT margin guidance of ~15%
Management explicitly stated 15% PBT margin is appropriate benchmark, noting current 26-27% PBT reflects late-stage project execution and favorable economics that cannot be sustained across all periods.
Annual revenue growth of 8-10%
Given transition period as order book moves through design/preparatory phases for new submarine programs, management expects growth to moderate from 20%+ trajectory to 8-10% annual rate.
P-75 Additional Submarines contract expected within 1-2 months
Commercial negotiations with MoD virtually complete; contract signing expected 'as early as next month' with approximate value INR 30,000-40,000 crore.
Order book expansion to ₹1.25 lakh crore on contract signing
Combining P-75AS (~₹40,000 crore) and P-75I (~₹60,000+ crore) contracts would expand current ₹32,000 crore order book to over ₹1.25 lakh crore.