Lohia · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
While management targets 50% export revenue normalization, the order book is currently 70% domestic. Declining INR helps but Chinese competition in Southeast Asia remains strong and pricing discipline is critical to regain export momentum.
Management deflected analyst's question about FY27 revenue projection (~₹2,150-2,200 crore) by citing geopolitical uncertainties and raw material volatility, avoiding explicit forward guidance despite strong order book.
While Lohia has 2,000 global customers, end-markets (cement, chemicals, food grains) are cyclical. Management notes only 3-5% of current orders come from replacement cycles, meaning growth depends entirely on customer capex expansion appetite.
Company currently commands 15-20% premium over Chinese machines based on technology and service quality. Management acknowledged China's global presence as a 'reality' and identified service/English language as current differentiation — both potentially erodible advantages.