Portfolio growth trajectory below target
Q1 portfolio growth of 4% vs double-digit guidance creates execution risk. High prepayment and rewrite pressures (INR 11,000-12,000 crore quarterly book erosion) may continue to offset disbursement growth.
LICHSGFIN / Q1-FY25 / risks
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LIC Housing Finance · Material risks, their source context, and severity in the latest available quarter.
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Risk intelligence
Material risks this quarter
high
Margin volatility from NPA recovery uncertainty
NPA interest income highly volatile - dropped from INR 230 crore in Q4 to INR 90 crore in Q1. Normalized guidance of INR 130-140 crore may not materialize if NCLT resolutions face further delays.
Stage 1 and Stage 2 provision coverage decline
Analyst raised sharp decline in Stage 1/2 provisioning (INR 121 crore reversal from cured accounts). Management explained ECL model mechanics but acknowledged volatility in provision coverage metrics.
NCLT resolution pipeline uncertainty
Three large accounts (INR 250 crore, INR 400 crore, INR 375 crore) in NCLT awaiting resolution with 'green shoots' mentioned but no firm timeline. Additional technical write-offs of INR 400-500 crore expected.