JUBLFOOD Q3 FY24 earnings call.
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₹1,378 Cr
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Jubilant FoodWorks reported Q3 FY24 with -2.9% like-for-like growth, driven entirely by dine-in weakness while delivery remained positive. The company gained pizza market share (69.7% revenue share vs 46.8% outlet share) and held EBITDA margin at 20.9% despite negative LFL through Project Vijay-driven gross margin improvement of 118bps. Cheesy Rewards enrolled base grew 102% YoY to 21.5 million customers, with highest-ever ticket size in 9 quarters (no price increase in 6 quarters). Domino's opened 40 stores in Q3, on track for 200 FY24 openings, entering Q4 with strongest pipeline ever. Popeyes and Hong's Kitchen are scaling ahead of plans. Management launched the 'It happens only with pizza' brand campaign to expand pizza's $1B share of the $51B food service market. Risks include cyclical demand softness post-Diwali, persistent dine-in declines, and uncertain whether demand has bottomed. The Jubilant Food Park in Bangalore (serving 750 Domino's + 300 other brand stores) is now operational with 4-year payback expected.
Colored figures show movement against the previous available record.
Guidance to track
- On track to open 200 Domino's stores in FY24 despite Q1 team transitions and Q3 construction restrictions (NCR pollution measures). Entering Q4 with strongest approved store and under-construction pipeline ever.
- Despite negative LFL of 2.9%, EBITDA margin held at 20.9% through Project Vijay savings and gross margin improvement of 118bps. Management committed to funding brand investments through internal efficiencies without margin dilution.
- Currently at 25 Popeyes stores with confidence in product-market fit (satisfaction scores among highest globally for Popeyes). Will share more financial contours once approaching 100 stores, targeting top 30-40 cities in 12-18 months.
Risks flagged
- Dine-in LFL was -2.9% (all negative LFL came from dine-in; delivery was positive). Management acknowledges this is an industry-wide trend driven by low-cost delivery in India versus global markets, but has no definitive turnaround timeline for this channel.
- CEO explicitly stated he cannot confidently say whether the worst is over for demand softness. January appears marginally better than December but not materially. Cyclical nature of mass discretionary spending remains a headwind to LFL recovery.
- Analyst Amit Sachdeva questioned whether recent ticket size improvements came at the cost of new customer acquisition. CEO acknowledged Pizza Mania targeting was reduced to protect ticket size, potentially impacting acquisition. Management hopes organic acquisition continues but this remains uncertain.
- Analyst questioned whether cloud kitchen model makes sense given delivery dominance and brand awareness. Management prefers 'Delco' (delivery + carryout) stores over dark kitchens but acknowledged evaluating right store formats in top 10 cities where 1,200 sq ft dine-in stores may be excessive.
Key quotes
- The job as leader is to expand the category and win and get more share of occasions versus more share from competition. In a $50 billion food services market, pizza is a minuscule $1 billion, so the job for us is to gain share from other cuisines and grow the category.
- We want to give good experience to customers. We stand for high quality pizzas, affordable, low cost, and very functional experience. Whether it's inside the store or delivery. Please don't equate dining experience improvement to fine dining or casual dining experiences.
- This current rough patch will be no different. We always adapted continuously to circumstances beyond our control, while being thoughtful and deliberate in our spending.
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