Q1-FY25 · Sameer Khetarpal
The quality of growth is the biggest news, as the growth is order-led and new customer-led, as the company acquired new customers at the highest ever rate, beating the industry trend.
Jubilant Foodworks · tone and specificity signals across the available quarters.
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The quality of growth is the biggest news, as the growth is order-led and new customer-led, as the company acquired new customers at the highest ever rate, beating the industry trend.
This is a different business. I think we should compare this to more chicken and burgers as a category, because the input cost is different. The cost in a pizza is more opaque versus, let's say, bone-in chicken. So therefore, it has different dynamics.
I do have that number in my mind [21-22% margin target], and we are focused on it, but I don't think it is going to be achieved in the coming quarter for sure.
I think this is the time where it penetrates more. It gets the throughput per store and the leverage is coming in three India's basis. It is very easy to take price hike at this stage. I get several proposals every day on my tables. I am moving in for growth and I can see the profitability improving at a Pre-Ind AS level.
Over a three-year period we should improve by at least 2200 basis points on standalone basis. That guidance remains, actually, to be very honest.
The biggest benefit of the reward program is the long-term value of customers who is four plus times the feed draft. It fundamentally attracts customers who love Domino's, who love pizza, and when they're making the choice, this is one of more factors... to come back to Domino's.
We believe our right place is to be anywhere 150 to 200 basis points higher than our current levels of EBITDA. We've held on to EBITDA levels for last two quarters. In last quarter, we improved by nearly 100 basis points. This quarter we did invest in the frontline teams... Despite the salary hike, despite the investment, we've held on to the EBITDA margin, which I think is a very positive story.
Every four or five years, the design or the palette for design changes, we're adopting to more vibrant, more colorful design, without adding to CapEx or store sizes.
Customers have chosen to downgrade from a large to medium or medium to regular. We do see that trend, but volumetrically, the items or quantities per order is not degrowing, right? So they're still consuming the same amount of calories or same amount of number of items, but they're choosing a lower price point item.
The amount of order growth that we are seeing is much higher than we anticipated. Also, the new customer growth is much higher than we anticipated. And both these counts are actually very positive stories for us because new customers we know ultimately repeat at almost three for the compounding will happen.
What we've done over there, we have increased our store productivity inside by almost 30%-35% in the last four quarters. So there's a concerted effort that went into it through technology, also partially aided by the increased throughput for store.
In this environment, in the short term, if you ask us a point-blank answer, I think it's not about margin being on focus. Of course, we'd like to maintain and maybe modestly keep improving it through internal productivity initiatives that we take. But the focus is on doubling down on growth and getting whatever demand is out there to take.
The opportunity to me is there is a growing opportunity on the premium end of the pizzas, which is more gourmet, wood-fired, Sourdough. Therefore, I believe the team has done a great job of bringing in a Sourdough Pizza into the mix. That is the fastest growing subcategory, and now we are playing over there too. We are very happy with the results.
We are in the business of generating free cash flows, so that has to come. Therefore, from that perspective, we know our growth story, especially the promise of the accuracy of delivery, the service of our 100% mozzarella cheese and high-quality products at a great value. That core flywheel is working for us, and therefore, we have to expand margins to fuel our expansion ambition. It is a constant balancing act.
On the tech side, I think the sentiment is low. Therefore, some of these geographies, which are highly dense IT services zones, like in Bangalore and Hyderabad or Gurgaon, have grown lesser. This has been compensated by growth somewhere else.
The job as leader is to expand the category and win and get more share of occasions versus more share from competition. In a $50 billion food services market, pizza is a minuscule $1 billion, so the job for us is to gain share from other cuisines and grow the category.
We want to give good experience to customers. We stand for high quality pizzas, affordable, low cost, and very functional experience. Whether it's inside the store or delivery. Please don't equate dining experience improvement to fine dining or casual dining experiences.
This current rough patch will be no different. We always adapted continuously to circumstances beyond our control, while being thoughtful and deliberate in our spending.
Q3 indeed was a landmark quarter for our company, marked by record performance for Domino's business. This exceptional performance is a testament to focus on-the-ground execution of our strategy and the unwavering dedication and commitment of our teams.
These four interventions are very conscious choices. It is investment for growth and investment for new customers that we are acquiring. At any time, I think we are very easy to kind of dial a bit down and let that flow. But I want to assure you, Domino's P&L is actually getting the leverage.
In terms of competition, the growth is definitely muted for the industry and listed players and large players. There is a big question mark on dark stores. With this kind of an environment, business moving largely towards delivery, some of these business models are under threat. That consolidation opportunity, to me, is sooner rather than later.
Domino's should grow at 5%-7% like-for-like growth. Overall, top-line should grow for standalone around 15%, and we should get closer to 15% pre-index margin.
We are building a 5,000-store business that is most penetrated. And I believe these [platform fees] are actually barriers to acquiring customers.
India is a $60 billion food services market. So our competition is bhatura chana, dosa, idli, biryani... The idea is to, out of 200 occasions that an Indian is consuming Indian food, get one additional share of pizza.
The drag of Popeyes, Dunkin', and Hong's was approximately about 230-250 basis points. And we should see that halving in that journey to getting to the overall margins up.
In a $50 billion market, with 70% market share, that's not the game that we are playing in. We are operating in a $50 billion market, and we have to grow the category.
Value works like magic, and delivery excellence or operations excellence drive repeat. These are my two, if I just cut the noise, if you focus on these two, it works.
At about 2.5%-3%, our margin should be closer to 21%. That kind of equation I have in my mind. If we get to 3%, we get to about 21% in EBITDA.
We are focused on delivery, and therefore, pushing the boundaries on 20-minute delivery is structural, and I believe that will allow us to gain share going forward.
What is working for us is structural. We are operating in a very large market, which is largely unorganized. If we keep that lens, we'll continue to penetrate, grow more as long as we stay true to these five structural initiatives.
I see no reason for us that we cannot improve to 100 basis points from here. That is what Suman had also mentioned during our investor day. We maintain that stance.