Iron Ore Volume Volatility at Paradip
Iron ore volumes have been lower in consecutive quarters due to Vedanta delayed stream-on and weak pellet export prices. Export-dependent cargo remains vulnerable to pricing fluctuations below $100/ton.
JSWINFRA / Q4-FY25 / risks
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Material risks this quarter
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Logistics EBITDA Margin Compression from Mix Shift
As logistics segment grows from 12-13% to 15% EBITDA margins, consolidated margins will decline from ~54% to ~40-45% given logistics carries lower margins than port operations.
Jaigarh/Dharamtar Volume Flatness Through FY27
Group cargo-dependent terminals at Jaigarh and Dharamtar will remain stable until Dolvi Steel expansion (10 to 15 MTPA) completes by March 2027, limiting near-term volume upside.
Major Port Privatization Execution Risk
Management expects 30-50 MTPA of concessions from Kolkata and Paradip in next 1-2 years, but timeline for EOI to actual award remains uncertain and competitive.