Paradip Iron Ore Terminal recovery uncertain
Paradip Iron Ore Terminal volumes declined ~3.9 MMT due to weak seaborne iron ore export market conditions, with monthly recovery to 0.8-1.0 MMT in Nov-Dec still below historical levels.
JSWINFRA / Q3-FY26 / risks
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Material risks this quarter
medium
EBITDA margin compression from new terminal mix
Q3 margin contracted ~181 bps as lower-EBITDA interim operations (JNPA Liquid Terminal, Tuticorin) contributed incremental volume. Management acknowledged this mix shift as a structural feature rather than one-time issue, suggesting sustained margin pressure as new terminals ramp up.
Tariff repricing at existing terminals remains pending
Analyst pressed management on whether existing port terminals (vs. new PPP terminals under MCA) would receive tariff flexibility. Management deflected, stating discussions are ongoing but no timeline can be provided—this leaves ~50% of existing revenue exposed to regulated pricing uncertainty.
FY2028 growth dependent on steel expansion timing at Dolvi
Jaigarh and Dharamtar expansions are calibrated assuming only 10 MMT of steel cargo from Dolvi expansion in FY2028 (conservative vs. 27-28 MMT peak potential). A 6-month delay in JSW Steel's Dolvi ramp-up could defer ~5-6 MMT cargo, impacting FY2028 targets.