Geopolitical headwinds impacting credit quality
Rising crude prices, supply chain disruptions, and interest rate hikes may stress MSME and export-oriented sectors.
Bank of India · risk themes across the available quarters.
Bear-case history
Rising crude prices, supply chain disruptions, and interest rate hikes may stress MSME and export-oriented sectors.
Transition to ECL guidelines from April 2027 may increase credit cost by ~10 bps annually, though management expects smooth transition.
CASA ratio fell to 37.64% from ~40% due to structural shift, potentially increasing cost of deposits if not reversed.
Three state PSUs in SMA category may slip into NPA if cash flows don't improve, though management is confident of recovery.